Premier League predictions
England · top flight · 20 teams · table updated 24 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Premier League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Premier League in the Bet Finder.
This week's Premier League fixtures
- 10 Oct · 12:30ArsenalvLeedsNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00Aston VillavBrentfordNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00ChelseavBournemouthNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00IpswichvFulhamNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00SunderlandvBrightonNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 17:30Manchester UnitedvTottenhamNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 14:00Crystal PalacevNottingham ForestNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 14:00Hull CityvEvertonNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 16:30LiverpoolvManchester CityNo pick yet
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 15 | |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 12 | |
| 3 |  Brighton | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 10 | |
| 4 |  Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 9 | |
| 5 |  Leeds | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 | |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 | |
| 7 |  Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 | |
| 8 |  Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 | |
| 9 |  Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 | |
| 10 |  Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 | |
| 11 |  Ipswich | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 | |
| 12 |  Manchester United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5 | |
| 13 |  Nottingham Forest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 | |
| 14 |  Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 | |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 | |
| 16 |  Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 | |
| 17 |  Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 | |
| 18 |  Coventry | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 | |
| 19 |  Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2 | |
| 20 |  Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 |
- Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
- Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
- Relegation - Championship
Official Premier League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-24.
This season in numbers
The model's Premier League record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 6 | 69.7% | 83.3% | +13.6 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 7 | 84.6% | 100.0% | +15.4 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 3 | 55.0% | 66.7% | +11.7 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 3 | 77.5% | 66.7% | -10.8 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 10 | 64.1% | 60.0% | -4.1 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Premier League matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Premier League results
- 20 Sept · 16:30Fulham1-1Manchester UnitedNo pick
- 20 Sept · 14:00Manchester City5-3SunderlandHome or Draw✓
- 20 Sept · 14:00Leeds0-0Crystal PalaceNo pick
- 20 Sept · 14:00Bournemouth0-1LiverpoolNo pick
- 19 Sept · 17:30Nottingham Forest0-1CoventryNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:00Newcastle2-1Hull CityNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:00Everton1-0IpswichNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:00Brighton3-0ArsenalAway or Draw✗
- 19 Sept · 12:30Tottenham2-3Aston VillaNo pick
- 18 Sept · 20:00Brentford3-0ChelseaNo pick
About Premier League
Premier League is the top flight of England football with 20 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.82 goals per game over 50 matches: both teams scored in 50%, 52% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 36% with 32% drawn. Manchester City lead the table on 15 points from 5 games.
How the model handles Premier League
Every Premier League fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 29 Premier League tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 70.7% on average and landing 75.9%. Its best-calibrated Premier League market so far is over 2.5 (64.1% claimed against 60.0% hit over 10 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Premier League predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Premier League table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Premier League market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Premier League tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 64.1% claimed against 60.0% hit over 10 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Premier League fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Premier League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.