How are these National League - South predictions made?

Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.

Where does the National League - South table come from?

It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.

Which National League - South market is the model most reliable in?

On settled National League - South tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 61.8% claimed against 53.6% hit over 28 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.

How far ahead are National League - South fixtures predicted?

Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public.

National League - South predictions

England · ninth tier · 24 teams · table updated 1 Oct

Calibrated probabilities for every National League - South match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter National League - South in the Bet Finder.

This week's National League - South fixtures

National League - South table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	10	6	1	3	18	11	+7	19
2	Dagenham & Redbridge	10	6	1	3	10	7	+3	19
3	Salisbury	10	5	3	2	18	7	+11	18
4	Billericay Town	10	5	3	2	21	14	+7	18
5	Weston-super-Mare	10	5	2	3	18	10	+8	17
6	Truro City	9	5	2	2	13	5	+8	17
7	Dover	10	5	2	3	17	16	+1	17
8	Dorking Wanderers	10	4	4	2	22	16	+6	16
9	Farnham Town	9	5	1	3	14	12	+2	16
10	Tonbridge Angels	10	4	2	4	19	11	+8	14
11	Maidenhead	10	3	4	3	12	11	+1	13
12	Hemel Hempstead Town	10	3	4	3	10	10	0	13
13	Torquay	10	3	4	3	13	14	-1	13
14	Folkestone Invicta	9	3	3	3	15	11	+4	12
15	Chelmsford City	9	1	8	0	9	8	+1	11
16	Horsham	9	2	5	2	9	10	-1	11
17	Farnborough	9	3	2	4	8	13	-5	11
18	Chesham United	10	3	1	6	16	19	-3	10
19	Braintree	9	3	1	5	16	22	-6	10
20	AFC Totton	9	3	1	5	8	15	-7	10
21	Ebbsfleet United	5	2	3	0	6	3	+3	9
22	Hampton & Richmond	10	2	2	6	11	24	-13	8
23	Slough Town	10	1	1	8	10	24	-14	4
24	Walton & Hersham	9	0	2	7	6	26	-20	2

Promotion - National League
Promotion - National League South (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - National League South (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation

Official National League - South table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-01.

This season in numbers

2.82

goals per game (113 matches)

51%

both teams scored

48%

over 2.5 goals

78%

over 1.5 goals

30%

over 3.5 goals

35%

home wins

27%

draws

37%

away wins

The model's National League - South record

Market	Tips	Claimed	Hit	Gap
Home win≥ 57%	11	62.1%	45.5%	-16.6
Home or draw≥ 80%	10	82.9%	50.0%	-32.9
Away win≥ 50%	1	53.1%	0.0%	-53.1
Away or draw≥ 73%	1	77.6%	0.0%	-77.6
Over 2.5≥ 57%	28	61.8%	53.6%	-8.2
BTTS≥ 63%	4	64.2%	50.0%	-14.2

Settled National League - South matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.

Recent National League - South results

About National League - South

National League - South is the ninth tier of England football with 24 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.82 goals per game over 113 matches: both teams scored in 51%, 48% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 35% with 27% drawn. Maidstone Utd lead the table on 19 points from 10 games.

How the model handles National League - South

Every National League - South fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 55 National League - South tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 66.0% on average and landing 49.1%. Its best-calibrated National League - South market so far is over 2.5 (61.8% claimed against 53.6% hit over 28 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.

Frequently asked questions

How are these National League - South predictions made?: Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Where does the National League - South table come from?: It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
Which National League - South market is the model most reliable in?: On settled National League - South tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 61.8% claimed against 53.6% hit over 28 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
How far ahead are National League - South fixtures predicted?: Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter National League - South by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.