National League predictions
England · fifth tier · 24 teams · table updated 2 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every National League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter National League in the Bet Finder.
This week's National League fixtures
- 9 Oct · 19:45Sutton UtdvBoreham WoodNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 12:30AltrinchamvAldershot TownNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 12:30CarlislevKidderminster HarriersNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00AFC FyldevScunthorpeNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00Boston UnitedvSouthendNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00FC Halifax TownvGatesheadNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00AFC HornchurchvEastleighNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00TamworthvBarrowNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00WealdstonevYeovil TownNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00WokingvHarrogate TownNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00WorthingvSolihull MoorsNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 17:30Forest GreenvHartlepoolNo pick yet
National League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boreham Wood | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 12 | +17 | 29 | |
| 2 |  Harrogate Town | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 17 | +8 | 22 | |
| 3 |  Southend | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 17 | +9 | 21 | |
| 4 |  Altrincham | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 21 | |
| 5 |  AFC Fylde | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 15 | +6 | 20 | |
| 6 |  Yeovil Town | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 19 | |
| 7 |  Aldershot Town | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 18 | |
| 8 |  Worthing | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 18 | |
| 9 |  Kidderminster Harriers | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 18 | |
| 10 |  AFC Hornchurch | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 18 | |
| 11 |  Sutton Utd | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 17 | |
| 12 |  Barrow | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 15 | |
| 13 |  Forest Green | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 15 | |
| 14 |  Eastleigh | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 15 | |
| 15 |  FC Halifax Town | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 14 | |
| 16 |  Carlisle | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 13 | |
| 17 |  Wealdstone | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 12 | |
| 18 |  Woking | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 12 | |
| 19 |  Boston United | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 | |
| 20 |  Tamworth | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 11 | |
| 21 |  Scunthorpe | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 10 | |
| 22 |  Hartlepool | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 9 | |
| 23 |  Solihull Moors | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 28 | -15 | 7 | |
| 24 |  Gateshead | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 25 | -19 | 4 |
- Promotion - League Two
- Promotion - National League (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
- Promotion - National League (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
- Relegation
Official National League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-02.
This season in numbers
The model's National League record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 4 | 63.1% | 75.0% | +11.9 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 8 | 82.3% | 75.0% | -7.3 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 4 | 53.2% | 50.0% | -3.2 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 4 | 76.7% | 75.0% | -1.7 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 16 | 59.8% | 68.8% | +9.0 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 3 | 63.7% | 0.0% | -63.7 |
Settled National League matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent National League results
- 30 Sept · 19:45Tamworth2-0Sutton UtdNo pick
- 30 Sept · 19:45Eastleigh1-1SouthendNo pick
- 29 Sept · 19:45Yeovil Town1-1WorthingAway or Draw✓
- 29 Sept · 19:45Woking2-4Solihull MoorsNo pick
- 29 Sept · 19:45AFC Hornchurch2-1Aldershot TownNo pick
- 29 Sept · 19:45Hartlepool0-1Harrogate TownNo pick
- 29 Sept · 19:45Gateshead0-1AltrinchamBTTS✗
- 29 Sept · 19:45Forest Green1-1WealdstoneNo pick
- 29 Sept · 19:45FC Halifax Town1-1Boston UnitedNo pick
- 29 Sept · 19:45Barrow3-0ScunthorpeNo pick
About National League
National League is the fifth tier of England football with 24 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.07 goals per game over 132 matches: both teams scored in 64%, 60% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 46% with 20% drawn. Boreham Wood lead the table on 29 points from 11 games.
How the model handles National League
Every National League fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 39 National League tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 66.1% on average and landing 64.1%. Its best-calibrated National League market so far is home or draw (82.3% claimed against 75.0% hit over 8 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these National League predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the National League table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which National League market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled National League tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 82.3% claimed against 75.0% hit over 8 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are National League fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter National League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.