League Two predictions
England · fourth tier · 24 teams · table updated 2 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every League Two match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter League Two in the Bet Finder.
This week's League Two fixtures
- 10 Oct · 12:30OldhamvAccrington STNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 12:30Swindon TownvCreweNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00Bristol RoversvBarnetNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00CheltenhamvSalford CityNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00Crawley TownvChesterfieldNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00Fleetwood TownvWalsallNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00Newport CountyvColchesterNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00Port ValevGrimsbyNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00RotherhamvGillinghamNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00ShrewsburyvExeter CityNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00TranmerevRochdaleNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00YorkvNorthamptonNo pick yet
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barnet | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 15 | |
| 2 |  Cheltenham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 15 | |
| 3 |  Bristol Rovers | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 15 | |
| 4 |  York | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 14 | |
| 5 |  Walsall | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 14 | |
| 6 |  Grimsby | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 13 | |
| 7 |  Salford City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 13 | |
| 8 |  Gillingham | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 12 | |
| 9 |  Crewe | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 | |
| 10 |  Tranmere | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 11 | |
| 11 |  Chesterfield | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 11 | |
| 12 |  Swindon Town | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 | |
| 13 |  Rotherham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 | |
| 14 |  Fleetwood Town | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 10 | |
| 15 |  Colchester | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 | |
| 16 |  Rochdale | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 | |
| 17 |  Newport County | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 9 | |
| 18 |  Shrewsbury | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 8 | |
| 19 |  Accrington ST | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 7 | |
| 20 |  Oldham | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 | |
| 21 |  Exeter City | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 6 | |
| 22 |  Northampton | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 6 | |
| 23 |  Port Vale | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 5 | |
| 24 |  Crawley Town | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
- Promotion - League One
- Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
- Relegation - National League
Official League Two table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-02.
This season in numbers
The model's League Two record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 4 | 64.7% | 50.0% | -14.7 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 7 | 82.9% | 71.4% | -11.5 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 2 | 51.3% | 50.0% | -1.3 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 2 | 75.6% | 50.0% | -25.6 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 4 | 58.8% | 50.0% | -8.8 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled League Two matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent League Two results
- 26 Sept · 17:30Oldham1-4Salford CityNo pick
- 26 Sept · 15:00York3-0GillinghamHome or Draw✓
- 26 Sept · 15:00Tranmere1-1WalsallNo pick
- 26 Sept · 15:00Swindon Town1-1Accrington STNo pick
- 26 Sept · 15:00Shrewsbury2-2ColchesterNo pick
- 26 Sept · 15:00Rotherham1-1CreweNo pick
- 26 Sept · 15:00Newport County2-1GrimsbyNo pick
- 26 Sept · 15:00Fleetwood Town1-2RochdaleDraw✗
- 26 Sept · 15:00Cheltenham2-1ChesterfieldAway or Draw✗
- 26 Sept · 15:00Bristol Rovers1-0Exeter CityNo pick
About League Two
League Two is the fourth tier of England football with 24 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.55 goals per game over 94 matches: both teams scored in 54%, 46% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 50% with 36% drawn. Barnet lead the table on 15 points from 7 games.
How the model handles League Two
Every League Two fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 19 League Two tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 69.9% on average and landing 57.9%. Its best-calibrated League Two market so far is home or draw (82.9% claimed against 71.4% hit over 7 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these League Two predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the League Two table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which League Two market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled League Two tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 82.9% claimed against 71.4% hit over 7 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are League Two fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter League Two by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.