Championship predictions
England · second tier · 24 teams · table updated 24 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Championship match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Championship in the Bet Finder.
This week's Championship fixtures
- 9 Oct · 20:00West HamvQPRNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 12:30CharltonvBristol CityNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 12:30SwanseavNorwichNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 12:30West BromvBirminghamNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00BlackburnvCardiffNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00BoltonvStoke CityNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00DerbyvWrexhamNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00MiddlesbroughvWolvesNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00PrestonvMillwallNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00Sheffield UtdvLincolnNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00WatfordvBurnleyNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 12:00SouthamptonvPortsmouthNo pick yet
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 17 | |
| 2 |  West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 15 | |
| 3 |  Middlesbrough | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 15 | |
| 4 |  Wolves | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 14 | |
| 5 |  West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 | |
| 6 |  QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 | |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 | |
| 8 |  Bristol City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 | |
| 9 |  Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 12 | |
| 10 |  Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 11 | |
| 11 |  Millwall | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 11 | |
| 12 |  Lincoln | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 11 | |
| 13 |  Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 10(-4) | |
| 14 |  Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 10 | |
| 15 |  Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 | |
| 16 |  Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 9 | |
| 17 |  Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 9 | |
| 18 |  Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 | |
| 19 |  Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 | |
| 20 |  Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 | |
| 21 |  Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 | |
| 22 |  Derby | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 5 | |
| 23 |  Preston | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 4 | |
| 24 |  Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 4 |
- Promotion - Premier League
- Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
- Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
- Relegation - League One
Official Championship table via API-Sports · points deductions applied to Southampton · updated 2026-09-24.
This season in numbers
The model's Championship record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 4 | 63.0% | 25.0% | -38.0 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 4 | 82.6% | 75.0% | -7.6 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 2 | 65.3% | 0.0% | -65.3 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Championship matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Championship results
- 20 Sept · 13:30Norwich3-4BoltonNo pick
- 20 Sept · 12:00Wolves1-0West BromNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:00Wrexham2-1SouthamptonNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:00QPR2-2PrestonNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:00Portsmouth2-2BlackburnNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:00Lincoln1-2SwanseaNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:00Burnley1-1DerbyNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:00Birmingham2-2MiddlesbroughNo pick
- 19 Sept · 12:30Stoke City2-1Sheffield UtdNo pick
- 19 Sept · 12:30Millwall2-2West HamNo pick
About Championship
Championship is the second tier of England football with 24 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.92 goals per game over 95 matches: both teams scored in 68%, 64% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 41% with 31% drawn. Swansea lead the table on 17 points from 8 games. Southampton (-4) has had points deducted, which the table above reflects.
How the model handles Championship
Every Championship fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 10 Championship tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 71.3% on average and landing 40.0%. Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Championship predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Championship table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Championship market is the model most reliable in?
- There are not yet enough settled Championship tips since 23 Jul to say. The record table on this page fills in as the season goes; until then the site-wide track record is the best guide to how each market behaves.
- How far ahead are Championship fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Championship by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.