Honest football predictions.
No accumulator dreams.
Most prediction sites sell long shots. We filter them out. Calibrated probabilities across 218 leagues — when we say 71%, we mean 71%.
Free account required. No card, no spam.
When we say 70%,
we mean 70%.
This is the chart most prediction sites won't show you. Each dot is a confidence bucket — say, predictions we made at 60% confidence. The y-axis is what actually happened. The closer to the diagonal, the more honest the model.
Yesterday delivered.
Today is loaded.
Martinique2 - 1
Honduras
The New Saints9 - 0
Cambrian & Clydach
Deportivo de La Coruña W1 - 2
Atletico Madrid W
Pumas UNAM W1 - 3
Tigres UANL W
Switzerland2 - 1
Slovenia
Glentoran2 - 0
Dungannon SwiftsThe most useful prediction is the one that tells you to sit a match out.
Most football prediction content is people getting excitedabout long shots — a 12-fold long shot at 187/1, a midweek ‘sure thing’ that finally comes in. Every other prediction site on the internet feeds that. They have to. The product is the dream.
We took a different approach. We built a model that's honest about what it doesn't know, publishes its calibration plot, and admits when its confidence is “fair” instead of “great.” Today, half our subscribers' most common action is closing the tab because there's nothing actionable. That's the product working.
If you want longshots, every other site has them. If you want a model that respects you enough to say “sit this one out”— you're home.
One slip a day. Every result on the record.
One square per day. We publish the slip in the morning and the result the day after — win or lose. Bright green = landed, red = missed, amber = void, empty = no slip ran that day.
218 leagues. Six markets. One model.
We're better at some markets than others — the table shows you exactly which.
Predictions honest enough
to actually use.
Free account, no card. Get today's slate, the full track record, and every prediction we've ever published. No accumulator dreams included.