How are these Non League Premier - Northern predictions made?

Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.

Where does the Non League Premier - Northern table come from?

It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.

Which Non League Premier - Northern market is the model most reliable in?

On settled Non League Premier - Northern tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 59.3% claimed against 64.7% hit over 17 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.

How far ahead are Non League Premier - Northern fixtures predicted?

Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public.

Non League Premier - Northern predictions

England · 12th tier · 22 teams · table updated 3 Oct

Calibrated probabilities for every Non League Premier - Northern match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Non League Premier - Northern in the Bet Finder.

This week's Non League Premier - Northern fixtures

Non League Premier - Northern table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	10	7	2	1	25	6	+19	23
2	Avro	9	7	1	1	28	16	+12	22
3	Redcar Athletic	10	6	4	0	19	7	+12	22
4	Guiseley AFC	10	6	1	3	22	11	+11	19
5	Workington	10	6	1	3	20	16	+4	19
6	Warrington Town	9	5	2	2	18	14	+4	17
7	Bury	9	5	1	3	19	8	+11	16
8	Curzon Ashton	9	5	1	3	18	10	+8	16
9	Rylands	10	5	1	4	13	13	0	16
10	Alfreton Town	10	5	0	5	16	10	+6	15
11	Gainsborough Trinity	9	4	1	4	14	12	+2	13
12	Lancaster City	10	4	1	5	11	18	-7	13
13	Whitby Town	10	4	0	6	15	26	-11	12
14	Ashton United	9	3	2	4	10	9	+1	11
15	Hyde United	10	3	2	5	11	19	-8	11
16	AFC Emley	10	2	4	4	9	18	-9	10
17	Leek Town	10	2	3	5	19	20	-1	9
18	Bamber Bridge	10	2	3	5	14	27	-13	9
19	Stockton Town	10	2	2	6	13	20	-7	8
20	Ilkeston Town	10	2	1	7	6	22	-16	7
21	Quorn	9	1	3	5	12	23	-11	6
22	United of Manchester	9	1	2	6	12	19	-7	5

Official Non League Premier - Northern table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-03.

This season in numbers

3.25

goals per game (106 matches)

56%

both teams scored

63%

over 2.5 goals

82%

over 1.5 goals

38%

over 3.5 goals

43%

home wins

18%

draws

39%

away wins

The model's Non League Premier - Northern record

Market	Tips	Claimed	Hit	Gap
Home win≥ 57%	0	—	—	—
Home or draw≥ 80%	0	—	—	—
Away win≥ 50%	0	—	—	—
Away or draw≥ 73%	0	—	—	—
Over 2.5≥ 57%	17	59.3%	64.7%	+5.4
BTTS≥ 63%	0	—	—	—

Settled Non League Premier - Northern matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.

Recent Non League Premier - Northern results

About Non League Premier - Northern

Non League Premier - Northern is the 12th tier of England football with 22 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.25 goals per game over 106 matches: both teams scored in 56%, 63% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 43% with 18% drawn. Cleethorpes Town lead the table on 23 points from 10 games.

How the model handles Non League Premier - Northern

Every Non League Premier - Northern fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 17 Non League Premier - Northern tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 59.3% on average and landing 64.7%. Its best-calibrated Non League Premier - Northern market so far is over 2.5 (59.3% claimed against 64.7% hit over 17 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.

Frequently asked questions

How are these Non League Premier - Northern predictions made?: Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Where does the Non League Premier - Northern table come from?: It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
Which Non League Premier - Northern market is the model most reliable in?: On settled Non League Premier - Northern tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 59.3% claimed against 64.7% hit over 17 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
How far ahead are Non League Premier - Northern fixtures predicted?: Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Non League Premier - Northern by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.