League One predictions
England · third tier · 24 teams · table updated 29 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every League One match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter League One in the Bet Finder.
This week's League One fixtures
- 10 Oct · 12:30Notts CountyvOxford UnitedNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 12:30PlymouthvAFC WimbledonNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00BradfordvLeyton OrientNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00Cambridge UnitedvBlackpoolNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00DoncastervBurton AlbionNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00HuddersfieldvSheffield WednesdayNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00LeicestervPeterboroughNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00Mansfield TownvBromleyNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00Milton Keynes DonsvReadingNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00StevenagevWiganNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00Stockport CountyvBarnsleyNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00WycombevLutonNo pick yet
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bradford | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 15 | |
| 2 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 14 | |
| 3 |  Stockport County | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 13 | |
| 4 |  Plymouth | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 13 | |
| 5 |  Cambridge United | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 13 | |
| 6 |  Huddersfield | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 12 | |
| 7 |  Burton Albion | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 12 | |
| 8 |  AFC Wimbledon | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 12 | |
| 9 |  Reading | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 11 | |
| 10 |  Oxford United | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 11 | |
| 11 |  Leyton Orient | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 10 | |
| 12 |  Wycombe | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 10 | |
| 13 |  Stevenage | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 9 | |
| 14 |  Leicester | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 | |
| 15 |  Blackpool | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 8 | |
| 16 |  Luton | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 | |
| 17 |  Mansfield Town | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 | |
| 18 |  Barnsley | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 | |
| 19 |  Bromley | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 8 | |
| 20 |  Notts County | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 | |
| 21 |  Doncaster | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 6 | |
| 22 |  Milton Keynes Dons | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 6 | |
| 23 |  Peterborough | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 5 | |
| 24 |  Wigan | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 4 |
- Promotion - Championship
- Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
- Relegation - League Two
Official League One table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-29.
This season in numbers
The model's League One record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 5 | 60.5% | 40.0% | -20.5 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 5 | 82.1% | 40.0% | -42.1 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 7 | 60.3% | 42.9% | -17.4 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled League One matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent League One results
- 26 Sept · 15:00Wycombe2-2ReadingNo pick
- 26 Sept · 15:00Stockport County1-0PeterboroughOver 2.5✗
- 26 Sept · 15:00Plymouth0-1Burton AlbionHome or Draw✗
- 26 Sept · 15:00Cambridge United1-1AFC WimbledonNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:00Wigan0-1WycombeNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:00Sheffield Wednesday0-0Stockport CountyOver 2.5✗
- 19 Sept · 15:00Reading2-0Notts CountyNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:00Peterborough0-2DoncasterNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:00Oxford United1-1Cambridge UnitedNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:00Luton0-1BradfordNo pick
About League One
League One is the third tier of England football with 24 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.89 goals per game over 87 matches: both teams scored in 60%, 54% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 35% with 33% drawn. Bradford lead the table on 15 points from 7 games.
How the model handles League One
Every League One fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 17 League One tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 66.8% on average and landing 41.2%. Its best-calibrated League One market so far is over 2.5 (60.3% claimed against 42.9% hit over 7 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these League One predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the League One table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which League One market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled League One tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 60.3% claimed against 42.9% hit over 7 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are League One fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter League One by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.