FA WSL predictions
England · sixth tier · 14 teams · table updated 1 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every FA WSL match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter FA WSL in the Bet Finder.
This week's FA WSL fixtures
- 4 Oct · 14:00Tottenham Hotspur WvLondon City Lionesses WNo pick yet
- 4 Oct · 14:00Aston Villa WvCrystal Palace WNo pick yet
- 4 Oct · 14:00Brighton WvCharlton Athletic WNo pick yet
- 4 Oct · 14:00Everton WvBirmingham City WNo pick yet
- 4 Oct · 14:00West Ham WvChelsea WAway or DrawStrong
- 4 Oct · 16:30Manchester City WvArsenal WNo pick yet
FA WSL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City W | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 12 | |
| 2 |  Tottenham Hotspur W | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 2 | +13 | 10 | |
| 3 |  Chelsea W | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 10 | |
| 4 |  London City Lionesses W | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 9 | |
| 5 |  Liverpool W | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 7 | |
| 6 |  Everton W | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 6 | |
| 7 |  Arsenal W | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| 8 |  Crystal Palace W | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 5 | |
| 9 |  Manchester United W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 | |
| 10 |  West Ham W | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 | |
| 11 |  Brighton W | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 | |
| 12 |  Birmingham City W | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 2 | |
| 13 |  Aston Villa W | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 2 | |
| 14 |  Charlton Athletic W | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 0 |
- WSL (Relegation)
- Relegation - WSL 2
Official FA WSL table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-01.
This season in numbers
The model's FA WSL record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 7 | 76.0% | 57.1% | -18.9 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 7 | 87.6% | 100.0% | +12.4 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 4 | 64.3% | 75.0% | +10.7 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 4 | 81.2% | 75.0% | -6.2 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 10 | 68.8% | 50.0% | -18.8 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 1 | 64.6% | 0.0% | -64.6 |
Settled FA WSL matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent FA WSL results
- 27 Sept · 16:30Chelsea W1-0Arsenal WNo pick
- 27 Sept · 14:00Tottenham Hotspur W4-0Aston Villa WNo pick
- 27 Sept · 14:00Liverpool W2-0Everton WNo pick
- 27 Sept · 14:00Birmingham City W3-3Crystal Palace WNo pick
- 27 Sept · 13:00Manchester United W2-1West Ham WHome or Draw✓
- 26 Sept · 17:00London City Lionesses W2-0Brighton WNo pick
- 26 Sept · 13:30Charlton Athletic W0-1Manchester City WAway or Draw✓
- 20 Sept · 14:00West Ham W0-1Everton WNo pick
- 20 Sept · 14:00Crystal Palace W0-7Tottenham Hotspur WNo pick
- 20 Sept · 14:00Brighton W1-1Aston Villa WNo pick
About FA WSL
FA WSL is the sixth tier of England football with 14 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.96 goals per game over 28 matches: both teams scored in 50%, 50% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 46% with 25% drawn. Manchester City W lead the table on 12 points from 4 games.
How the model handles FA WSL
Every FA WSL fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 33 FA WSL tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 75.1% on average and landing 66.7%. Its best-calibrated FA WSL market so far is home or draw (87.6% claimed against 100.0% hit over 7 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these FA WSL predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the FA WSL table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which FA WSL market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled FA WSL tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 87.6% claimed against 100.0% hit over 7 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are FA WSL fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter FA WSL by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.