Serie A predictions
Italy · top flight · 20 teams · table updated 22 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Serie A match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Serie A in the Bet Finder.
This week's Serie A fixtures
- 10 Oct · 14:00GenoavFiorentinaNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 17:00IntervParmaNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 19:45NapolivFrosinoneNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 11:30ComovAS RomaNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 14:00LaziovMonzaNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 14:00LeccevBolognaNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 17:00SassuolovAC MilanNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 19:45CagliarivJuventusNo pick yet
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 13 | |
| 2 |  Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 13 | |
| 3 |  Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 13 | |
| 4 |  Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 12 | |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 11 | |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 10 | |
| 7 |  Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 10 | |
| 8 |  Como | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 10 | |
| 9 |  Napoli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 | |
| 10 |  Sassuolo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 7 | |
| 11 |  Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 | |
| 12 |  Lecce | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 6 | |
| 13 |  Udinese | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 4 | |
| 14 |  Torino | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 | |
| 15 |  Parma | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 | |
| 16 |  Monza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 4 | |
| 17 |  Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 | |
| 18 |  Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 | |
| 19 |  Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 | |
| 20 |  Venezia | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 0 |
- Champions League league stage
- Europa League league stage
- Play-offs
- Relegation
Official Serie A table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-22.
This season in numbers
The model's Serie A record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 5 | 64.9% | 80.0% | +15.1 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 8 | 83.4% | 62.5% | -20.9 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 3 | 55.9% | 100.0% | +44.1 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 3 | 78.8% | 100.0% | +21.2 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 4 | 61.5% | 100.0% | +38.5 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Serie A matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Serie A results
- 20 Sept · 19:45AC Milan3-0LecceHome or Draw✓
- 20 Sept · 17:00Juventus2-0AtalantaNo pick
- 20 Sept · 14:00Parma2-1GenoaNo pick
- 20 Sept · 14:00Frosinone2-0ComoNo pick
- 20 Sept · 11:30Fiorentina1-1NapoliNo pick
- 19 Sept · 19:45Venezia0-2LazioNo pick
- 19 Sept · 17:00AS Roma2-2InterNo pick
- 19 Sept · 14:00Udinese0-1CagliariDraw✗
- 19 Sept · 14:00Bologna1-1TorinoNo pick
- 18 Sept · 19:45Monza2-1SassuoloNo pick
About Serie A
Serie A is the top flight of Italy football with 20 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.90 goals per game over 50 matches: both teams scored in 58%, 54% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 44% with 18% drawn. AS Roma lead the table on 13 points from 5 games.
How the model handles Serie A
Every Serie A fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 23 Serie A tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 71.4% on average and landing 82.6%. Its best-calibrated Serie A market so far is home win (64.9% claimed against 80.0% hit over 5 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Serie A predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Serie A table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Serie A market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Serie A tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 64.9% claimed against 80.0% hit over 5 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Serie A fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Serie A by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.