Bundesliga predictions
Germany · top flight · 18 teams · table updated 22 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Bundesliga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Bundesliga in the Bet Finder.
This week's Bundesliga fixtures
- 9 Oct · 19:30Borussia DortmundvWerder BremenNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 14:301899 HoffenheimvHamburger SVNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 14:30FC AugsburgvBayern MünchenNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 14:30FSV Mainz 05vBayer LeverkusenNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 14:30Union BerlinvSV ElversbergNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 14:30SC Paderborn 07vVfB StuttgartNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 17:30RB LeipzigvEintracht FrankfurtNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 14:301. FC KölnvBorussia MönchengladbachNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 16:30SC FreiburgvFC Schalke 04No pick yet
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 12 | |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 10 | |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 10 | |
| 4 |  FC Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 7 | |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 7 | |
| 6 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 7 | |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 7 | |
| 8 |  Werder Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 | |
| 9 |  RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 | |
| 10 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 5 | |
| 11 |  FC Schalke 04 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 | |
| 12 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 | |
| 13 |  1. FC Köln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 4 | |
| 14 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3 | |
| 15 |  VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 | |
| 16 |  Hamburger SV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 | |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 | |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 |
- Champions League league stage
- Europa League league stage
- Qualifying
- Relegation Playoffs
- Relegation
Official Bundesliga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-22.
This season in numbers
The model's Bundesliga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 9 | 67.7% | 100.0% | +32.3 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 8 | 85.6% | 100.0% | +14.4 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 2 | 64.2% | 50.0% | -14.2 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 2 | 80.9% | 100.0% | +19.1 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 22 | 63.5% | 72.7% | +9.2 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Bundesliga matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Bundesliga results
- 20 Sept · 18:30SC Paderborn 073-11899 HoffenheimOver 2.5✓
- 20 Sept · 16:30FC Schalke 040-0SV ElversbergOver 2.5✗
- 20 Sept · 14:30Bayer Leverkusen2-0RB LeipzigOver 2.5✗
- 19 Sept · 17:30VfB Stuttgart0-1Borussia DortmundOver 2.5✗
- 19 Sept · 14:30Borussia Mönchengladbach3-4FSV Mainz 05No pick
- 19 Sept · 14:30Werder Bremen3-2FC AugsburgNo pick
- 19 Sept · 14:30Hamburger SV2-11. FC KölnOver 2.5✓
- 19 Sept · 14:30Eintracht Frankfurt2-2SC FreiburgNo pick
- 18 Sept · 19:30Bayern München7-0Union BerlinOver 2.5✓
- 13 Sept · 16:30SV Elversberg1-2Bayern MünchenAway or Draw✓
About Bundesliga
Bundesliga is the top flight of Germany football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.81 goals per game over 36 matches: both teams scored in 58%, 78% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 53% with 19% drawn. Borussia Dortmund lead the table on 12 points from 4 games.
How the model handles Bundesliga
Every Bundesliga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 43 Bundesliga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 69.3% on average and landing 83.7%. Its best-calibrated Bundesliga market so far is over 2.5 (63.5% claimed against 72.7% hit over 22 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Bundesliga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Bundesliga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Bundesliga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Bundesliga tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 63.5% claimed against 72.7% hit over 22 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Bundesliga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Bundesliga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.