3. Liga predictions
Germany · third tier · 20 teams · table updated 29 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every 3. Liga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter 3. Liga in the Bet Finder.
This week's 3. Liga fixtures
- 10 Oct · 13:00Alemannia AachenvFC Viktoria KölnNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 13:00MSV DuisburgvHoffenheim IINo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 13:00Fortuna DüsseldorfvVerlNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 13:00Fortuna KölnvFC SaarbrückenNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 13:00SG Sonnenhof GrossaspachvWaldhof MannheimNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 13:00FC Ingolstadt 04vSV WehenNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 13:00SV MeppenvStuttgart IINo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 13:00Preußen MünstervRot-Weiß EssenNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 13:00SSV Jahn RegensburgvHavelseNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 13:00Würzburger KickersvHansa RostockNo pick yet
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MSV Duisburg | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 18 | |
| 2 |  FC Viktoria Köln | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 15 | |
| 3 |  Rot-Weiß Essen | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 14 | |
| 4 |  FC Saarbrücken | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 13 | |
| 5 |  Hoffenheim II | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 13 | |
| 6 |  Hansa Rostock | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 | |
| 7 |  Alemannia Aachen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 11 | |
| 8 |  Preußen Münster | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 | |
| 9 |  Waldhof Mannheim | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 10 | |
| 10 |  Fortuna Düsseldorf | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 | |
| 11 |  Verl | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 | |
| 12 |  Fortuna Köln | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 | |
| 13 |  SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 | |
| 14 |  FC Ingolstadt 04 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 | |
| 15 |  Stuttgart II | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 7 | |
| 16 |  Würzburger Kickers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 7 | |
| 17 |  SV Meppen | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 6 | |
| 18 |  SSV Jahn Regensburg | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5 | |
| 19 |  SV Wehen | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 5 | |
| 20 |  Havelse | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 4 |
- Promotion - 2. Bundesliga
- Promotion - 2. Bundesliga (Promotion)
- Relegation
Official 3. Liga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-29.
This season in numbers
The model's 3. Liga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 2 | 61.1% | 100.0% | +38.9 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 4 | 82.0% | 75.0% | -7.0 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 13 | 60.9% | 46.2% | -14.7 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled 3. Liga matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent 3. Liga results
- 25 Sept · 18:00Havelse1-3Fortuna KölnNo pick
- 20 Sept · 18:30SV Wehen1-4MSV DuisburgNo pick
- 20 Sept · 15:30Waldhof Mannheim2-0Preußen MünsterOver 2.5✗
- 20 Sept · 12:30Rot-Weiß Essen1-1Hansa RostockNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:30FC Saarbrücken2-1SG Sonnenhof GrossaspachNo pick
- 19 Sept · 13:00FC Viktoria Köln3-0FC Ingolstadt 04No pick
- 19 Sept · 13:00Stuttgart II3-3SSV Jahn RegensburgNo pick
- 19 Sept · 13:00Hoffenheim II1-0SV MeppenHome or Draw✓
- 19 Sept · 13:00Alemannia Aachen1-0Fortuna DüsseldorfNo pick
- 18 Sept · 18:00Verl2-1Würzburger KickersNo pick
About 3. Liga
3. Liga is the third tier of Germany football with 20 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.27 goals per game over 70 matches: both teams scored in 63%, 66% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 41% with 20% drawn. MSV Duisburg lead the table on 18 points from 7 games.
How the model handles 3. Liga
Every 3. Liga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 19 3. Liga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 65.4% on average and landing 57.9%. Its best-calibrated 3. Liga market so far is over 2.5 (60.9% claimed against 46.2% hit over 13 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these 3. Liga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the 3. Liga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which 3. Liga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled 3. Liga tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 60.9% claimed against 46.2% hit over 13 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are 3. Liga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter 3. Liga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.