How are these Reserve League predictions made?

Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.

Where does the Reserve League table come from?

It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.

Which Reserve League market is the model most reliable in?

On settled Reserve League tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 83.1% claimed against 83.3% hit over 42 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.

How far ahead are Reserve League fixtures predicted?

Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public.

Reserve League predictions

Argentina · seventh tier · table updated 2 Oct

Calibrated probabilities for every Reserve League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Reserve League in the Bet Finder.

This week's Reserve League fixtures

Reserve League table

Apertura

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Vélez Sársfield Res.	20	15	2	3	42	13	+29	47
2	Boca Juniors Res.	20	12	3	5	36	12	+24	39
3	Racing Club Res.	21	11	6	4	33	26	+7	39
4	River Plate Res.	21	11	4	6	29	20	+9	37
5	Independiente Res.	19	11	3	5	38	19	+19	36
6	Lanús Res.	19	11	2	6	40	27	+13	35
7	Newell's Old Boys Res.	19	10	4	5	27	18	+9	34
8	Quilmes 2	18	10	3	5	20	12	+8	33
9	Defensa y Justicia Res.	18	9	5	4	38	24	+14	32
10	Atlético Tucumán Res.	19	9	3	7	26	28	-2	30
11	Unión Santa Fe Res.	18	7	8	3	23	19	+4	29
12	Estudiantes La Plata Res	18	8	4	6	25	16	+9	28
13	Argentinos Juniors Res.	18	7	7	4	24	18	+6	28
14	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	18	8	3	7	27	29	-2	27
15	Talleres Córdoba Res.	18	7	5	6	27	21	+6	26
16	Huracán Res.	18	7	5	6	23	17	+6	26
17	Rosario Central Res.	18	7	5	6	25	22	+3	26
18	Platense Res.	18	7	5	6	17	20	-3	26
19	Deportivo Riestra Res.	18	7	4	7	25	18	+7	25
20	Independiente Riva. Res.	18	7	3	8	23	23	0	24
21	Instituto Res.	18	5	9	4	20	21	-1	24
22	San Lorenzo Res.	18	6	6	6	22	24	-2	24
23	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	18	6	5	7	19	17	+2	23
24	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	18	6	5	7	16	19	-3	23
25	Banfield Res.	18	6	5	7	14	18	-4	23
26	Ferro 2	18	6	4	8	20	23	-3	22
27	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	18	5	4	9	21	33	-12	19
28	Colón Res.	18	5	3	10	15	23	-8	18
29	Aldosivi Res.	18	5	3	10	17	28	-11	18
30	Barracas Central Res.	18	4	5	9	11	24	-13	17
31	Sarmiento Res.	18	4	4	10	16	26	-10	16
32	Tigre Res.	18	4	4	10	15	25	-10	16
33	Godoy Cruz Res.	18	4	3	11	20	30	-10	15
34	Atl. Rafaela 2	18	3	3	12	21	36	-15	12
35	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	18	2	5	11	9	32	-23	11
36	San Martín San Juan Res.	18	2	2	14	16	59	-43	8

Clausura

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Independiente Res.	11	8	2	1	25	9	+16	26
2	Lanús Res.	11	7	2	2	20	13	+7	23
3	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	11	6	4	1	11	5	+6	22
4	River Plate Res.	11	5	6	0	18	8	+10	21
5	Deportivo Riestra Res.	11	6	2	3	19	10	+9	20
6	Estudiantes La Plata Res	11	6	2	3	18	10	+8	20
7	Boca Juniors Res.	11	5	4	2	15	8	+7	19
8	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	11	6	1	4	13	11	+2	19
9	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	11	5	4	2	16	15	+1	19
10	Rosario Central Res.	11	5	4	2	15	14	+1	19
11	Atl. Rafaela 2	11	5	4	2	14	13	+1	19
12	Vélez Sársfield Res.	11	4	5	2	11	4	+7	17
13	Sarmiento Res.	11	4	5	2	11	7	+4	17
14	Talleres Córdoba Res.	11	4	5	2	12	9	+3	17
15	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	11	4	4	3	11	6	+5	16
16	Godoy Cruz Res.	11	4	4	3	14	12	+2	16
17	Quilmes 2	11	4	3	4	9	9	0	15
18	Huracán Res.	11	4	2	5	13	10	+3	14
19	San Lorenzo Res.	11	4	2	5	12	11	+1	14
20	Instituto Res.	11	3	5	3	14	15	-1	14
21	Tigre Res.	11	4	2	5	15	19	-4	14
22	Newell's Old Boys Res.	11	3	4	4	13	11	+2	13
23	Unión Santa Fe Res.	11	2	7	2	12	10	+2	13
24	Racing Club Res.	11	2	6	3	17	18	-1	12
25	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	11	3	3	5	10	16	-6	12
26	Atlético Tucumán Res.	11	3	3	5	7	13	-6	12
27	Defensa y Justicia Res.	11	2	5	4	17	18	-1	11
28	Argentinos Juniors Res.	11	2	5	4	7	11	-4	11
29	San Martín San Juan Res.	11	2	4	5	7	18	-11	10
30	Banfield Res.	11	2	3	6	10	17	-7	9
31	Independiente Riva. Res.	11	2	3	6	12	20	-8	9
32	Aldosivi Res.	11	1	5	5	9	14	-5	8
33	Colón Res.	11	2	2	7	8	16	-8	8
34	Barracas Central Res.	11	1	4	6	8	19	-11	7
35	Platense Res.	11	0	6	5	4	13	-9	6
36	Ferro 2	11	1	2	8	9	24	-15	5

Official Reserve League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-02.

This season in numbers

2.45

goals per game (529 matches)

47%

both teams scored

43%

over 2.5 goals

70%

over 1.5 goals

25%

over 3.5 goals

44%

home wins

27%

draws

29%

away wins

The model's Reserve League record

Market	Tips	Claimed	Hit	Gap
Home win≥ 57%	30	62.3%	50.0%	-12.3
Home or draw≥ 80%	42	83.1%	83.3%	+0.2
Away win≥ 50%	6	54.8%	33.3%	-21.5
Away or draw≥ 73%	6	78.0%	100.0%	+22.0
Over 2.5≥ 57%	8	61.5%	50.0%	-11.5
BTTS≥ 63%	0	—	—	—

Settled Reserve League matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.

Recent Reserve League results

About Reserve League

Reserve League is the seventh tier of Argentina football played across 2 groups. The 2026 season has produced 2.45 goals per game over 529 matches: both teams scored in 47%, 43% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 44% with 27% drawn. The table is published as Apertura, Clausura.

How the model handles Reserve League

Every Reserve League fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 92 Reserve League tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 72.3% on average and landing 67.4%. Its best-calibrated Reserve League market so far is home or draw (83.1% claimed against 83.3% hit over 42 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.

Frequently asked questions

How are these Reserve League predictions made?: Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Where does the Reserve League table come from?: It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
Which Reserve League market is the model most reliable in?: On settled Reserve League tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 83.1% claimed against 83.3% hit over 42 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
How far ahead are Reserve League fixtures predicted?: Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Reserve League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.