How are these Primera Nacional predictions made?

Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.

Where does the Primera Nacional table come from?

It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.

Which Primera Nacional market is the model most reliable in?

On settled Primera Nacional tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 81.8% claimed against 90.0% hit over 30 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.

How far ahead are Primera Nacional fixtures predicted?

Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public.

Primera Nacional predictions

Argentina · second tier · table updated 1 Oct

Calibrated probabilities for every Primera Nacional match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Primera Nacional in the Bet Finder.

This week's Primera Nacional fixtures

Primera Nacional table

Group 1

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	31	18	7	6	36	25	+11	61
2	Deportivo Moron	31	16	7	8	49	31	+18	55
3	Godoy Cruz	31	15	8	8	40	28	+12	53
4	Deportivo Madryn	31	13	11	7	44	28	+16	50
5	Colon Santa Fe	31	13	10	8	38	25	+13	49
6	Almirante Brown	31	12	10	9	23	18	+5	46
7	CA Estudiantes	31	12	9	10	29	26	+3	45
8	Ciudad de Bolívar	31	10	12	9	26	28	-2	42
9	Los Andes	31	9	13	9	24	21	+3	40
10	Chaco For Ever	31	9	9	13	28	31	-3	36
11	Defensores De Belgrano	31	8	12	11	23	27	-4	36
12	Racing Cordoba	31	9	9	13	28	38	-10	36
13	San Telmo	31	8	10	13	25	34	-9	34
14	All Boys	31	6	15	10	17	26	-9	33
15	Central Norte	31	6	14	11	19	28	-9	32
16	Atletico Mitre	31	6	14	11	27	39	-12	32
17	San Miguel	31	6	13	12	25	36	-11	31
18	Acassuso	31	7	8	16	22	34	-12	29

Group 2

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Tristan Suarez	31	15	12	4	32	15	+17	57
2	Gimnasia Jujuy	31	15	9	7	47	38	+9	54
3	Temperley	31	14	11	6	36	25	+11	53
4	Atlanta	31	16	4	11	35	28	+7	52
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	31	13	9	9	32	27	+5	48
6	Midland	31	13	8	10	34	26	+8	47
7	San Martin S.J.	31	12	9	10	33	30	+3	45
8	Deportivo Maipu	31	12	8	11	38	31	+7	44
9	Colegiales	31	12	7	12	31	31	0	43
10	Atletico DE Rafaela	31	11	9	11	25	27	-2	42
11	San Martin Tucuman	31	9	13	9	34	32	+2	40
12	Quilmes	31	10	8	13	30	27	+3	38
13	Nueva Chicago	31	9	9	13	23	29	-6	36
14	Agropecuario	31	9	9	13	26	35	-9	36
15	Almagro	31	9	8	14	26	37	-11	35
16	Patronato	31	6	16	9	27	31	-4	34
17	Chacarita Juniors	31	8	6	17	23	33	-10	30
18	Club Atlético Güemes	31	5	8	18	23	53	-30	23

Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation

Official Primera Nacional table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-01.

This season in numbers

1.93

goals per game (558 matches)

39%

both teams scored

32%

over 2.5 goals

59%

over 1.5 goals

12%

over 3.5 goals

48%

home wins

32%

draws

21%

away wins

The model's Primera Nacional record

Market	Tips	Claimed	Hit	Gap
Home win≥ 57%	6	59.4%	83.3%	+23.9
Home or draw≥ 80%	30	81.8%	90.0%	+8.2
Away win≥ 50%	0	—	—	—
Away or draw≥ 73%	0	—	—	—
Over 2.5≥ 57%	0	—	—	—
BTTS≥ 63%	0	—	—	—

Settled Primera Nacional matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.

Recent Primera Nacional results

About Primera Nacional

Primera Nacional is the second tier of Argentina football played across 2 groups. The 2026 season has produced 1.93 goals per game over 558 matches: both teams scored in 39%, 32% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 48% with 32% drawn. The table is published as Group 1, Group 2.

How the model handles Primera Nacional

Every Primera Nacional fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 36 Primera Nacional tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 78.1% on average and landing 88.9%. Its best-calibrated Primera Nacional market so far is home or draw (81.8% claimed against 90.0% hit over 30 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.

Frequently asked questions

How are these Primera Nacional predictions made?: Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Where does the Primera Nacional table come from?: It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
Which Primera Nacional market is the model most reliable in?: On settled Primera Nacional tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 81.8% claimed against 90.0% hit over 30 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
How far ahead are Primera Nacional fixtures predicted?: Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Primera Nacional by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.