USL Championship predictions
USA · third tier · table updated 2 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every USL Championship match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter USL Championship in the Bet Finder.
This week's USL Championship fixtures
- 4 Oct · 23:00New Mexico UnitedvPhoenix RisingNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 0:30LexingtonvFC TulsaNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 22:00Sporting JAXvBirmingham LegionNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 23:00Charleston BatteryvLouisville CityNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 0:00Detroit CityvRhode IslandNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 0:00Indy ElevenvTampa Bay RowdiesNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 0:00Miami FCvLoudoun UnitedNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 0:00Pittsburgh RiverhoundsvHartford AthleticNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 2:00El Paso LocomotivevOrange County SCNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 2:00New Mexico UnitedvMonterey BayNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 3:00Oakland RootsvSan AntonioNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 3:00Phoenix RisingvLas Vegas LightsNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 3:00Sacramento RepublicvColorado SpringsNo pick yet
USL Championship table
USL Championship
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tampa Bay Rowdies | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 45 | 23 | +22 | 52 | |
| 2 |  Charleston Battery | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 52 | 31 | +21 | 46 | |
| 3 |  Detroit City | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 32 | 20 | +12 | 44 | |
| 4 |  Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 39 | |
| 5 |  Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 28 | 27 | +1 | 38 | |
| 6 |  Louisville City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 43 | 42 | +1 | 37 | |
| 7 |  Rhode Island | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 36 | 28 | +8 | 35 | |
| 8 |  Miami FC | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 33 | |
| 9 |  Indy Eleven | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 33 | |
| 10 |  Birmingham Legion | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 23 | |
| 11 |  Loudoun United | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 23 | |
| 12 |  Brooklyn | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 26 | 52 | -26 | 18 | |
| 13 |  Sporting JAX | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32 | 73 | -41 | 14 |
USL Championship
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  El Paso Locomotive | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 45 | 32 | +13 | 47 | |
| 2 |  New Mexico United | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 39 | 31 | +8 | 43 | |
| 3 |  Sacramento Republic | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 36 | 24 | +12 | 43 | |
| 4 |  FC Tulsa | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 41 | |
| 5 |  Lexington | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 46 | 32 | +14 | 40 | |
| 6 |  Orange County SC | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 39 | |
| 7 |  Colorado Springs | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 40 | 37 | +3 | 39 | |
| 8 |  San Antonio | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 29 | 28 | +1 | 38 | |
| 9 |  Oakland Roots | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 33 | |
| 10 |  Las Vegas Lights | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 33 | |
| 11 |  Phoenix Rising | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 33 | |
| 12 |  Monterey Bay | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 27 | 46 | -19 | 18 |
- Play Offs: 1/8-finals
Official USL Championship table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-02.
This season in numbers
The model's USL Championship record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 15 | 64.9% | 86.7% | +21.8 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 17 | 83.3% | 82.4% | -0.9 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 1 | 50.7% | 100.0% | +49.3 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 75.6% | 100.0% | +24.4 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 17 | 61.3% | 58.8% | -2.5 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled USL Championship matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent USL Championship results
- 1 Oct · 3:00Sacramento Republic3-2Las Vegas LightsHome or Draw✓
- 1 Oct · 1:00FC Tulsa1-0New Mexico UnitedNo pick
- 1 Oct · 0:30Rhode Island1-0Indy ElevenHome Win✓
- 1 Oct · 0:00Miami FC4-1Sporting JAXNo pick
- 1 Oct · 0:00Brooklyn1-3Detroit CityNo pick
- 27 Sept · 3:00Orange County SC1-0Pittsburgh RiverhoundsNo pick
- 27 Sept · 3:00Oakland Roots3-0Phoenix RisingNo pick
- 27 Sept · 3:00Monterey Bay2-3LexingtonNo pick
- 27 Sept · 2:00New Mexico United2-3Sacramento RepublicNo pick
- 27 Sept · 1:30San Antonio0-0Tampa Bay RowdiesNo pick
About USL Championship
USL Championship is the third tier of USA football played across 2 groups. The 2026 season has produced 2.73 goals per game over 325 matches: both teams scored in 54%, 50% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 44% with 29% drawn. The table is published as USL Championship, USL Championship.
How the model handles USL Championship
Every USL Championship fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 51 USL Championship tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 69.8% on average and landing 76.5%. Its best-calibrated USL Championship market so far is home or draw (83.3% claimed against 82.4% hit over 17 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these USL Championship predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the USL Championship table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which USL Championship market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled USL Championship tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 83.3% claimed against 82.4% hit over 17 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are USL Championship fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter USL Championship by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.