How are these Major League Soccer predictions made?

Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.

Where does the Major League Soccer table come from?

It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.

Which Major League Soccer market is the model most reliable in?

On settled Major League Soccer tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is btts: 65.0% claimed against 62.5% hit over 8 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.

How far ahead are Major League Soccer fixtures predicted?

Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public.

Major League Soccer predictions

USA · top flight · table updated 1 Oct

Calibrated probabilities for every Major League Soccer match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Major League Soccer in the Bet Finder.

This week's Major League Soccer fixtures

Major League Soccer table

Western Conference

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	26	15	5	6	59	26	+33	50
2	St. Louis City	27	13	8	6	48	36	+12	47
3	FC Dallas	27	13	8	6	50	42	+8	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	27	13	6	8	49	39	+10	45
5	Houston Dynamo	27	13	5	9	34	32	+2	44
6	Los Angeles FC	28	11	8	9	43	30	+13	41
7	Seattle Sounders	27	10	8	9	35	35	0	38
8	Colorado Rapids	27	11	3	13	38	38	0	36
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	9	9	10	37	44	-7	36
10	Portland Timbers	27	9	5	13	48	51	-3	32
11	Real Salt Lake	27	9	5	13	40	44	-4	32
12	San Diego	27	8	8	11	47	47	0	32
13	Austin	27	7	10	10	35	47	-12	31
14	Minnesota United FC	27	7	8	12	40	49	-9	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	27	6	3	18	32	65	-33	21

Eastern Conference

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Nashville SC	27	18	6	3	55	21	+34	60
2	New England Revolution	27	14	4	9	45	36	+9	46
3	Inter Miami	27	12	10	5	64	50	+14	46
4	Charlotte	27	12	7	8	47	38	+9	43
5	Chicago Fire	26	12	6	8	46	38	+8	42
6	Philadelphia Union	27	11	6	10	54	44	+10	39
7	Orlando City SC	27	10	4	13	48	64	-16	34
8	New York Red Bulls	27	9	6	12	34	51	-17	33
9	New York City FC	27	8	9	10	41	36	+5	33
10	FC Cincinnati	26	8	9	9	55	64	-9	33
11	DC United	26	6	12	8	34	42	-8	30
12	Columbus Crew	27	8	5	14	39	43	-4	29
13	Toronto FC	27	6	11	10	39	51	-12	29
14	Atlanta United FC	27	7	6	14	32	45	-13	27
15	CF Montreal	27	6	6	15	34	54	-20	24

Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)

Official Major League Soccer table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-01.

This season in numbers

3.22

goals per game (404 matches)

63%

both teams scored

63%

over 2.5 goals

82%

over 1.5 goals

39%

over 3.5 goals

46%

home wins

26%

draws

29%

away wins

The model's Major League Soccer record

Market	Tips	Claimed	Hit	Gap
Home win≥ 57%	32	63.0%	50.0%	-13.0
Home or draw≥ 80%	40	83.4%	72.5%	-10.9
Away win≥ 50%	0	—	—	—
Away or draw≥ 73%	0	—	—	—
Over 2.5≥ 57%	55	60.9%	67.3%	+6.4
BTTS≥ 63%	8	65.0%	62.5%	-2.5

Settled Major League Soccer matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.

Recent Major League Soccer results

About Major League Soccer

Major League Soccer is the top flight of USA football played across 2 groups. The 2026 season has produced 3.22 goals per game over 404 matches: both teams scored in 63%, 63% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 46% with 26% drawn. The table is published as Western Conference, Eastern Conference.

How the model handles Major League Soccer

Every Major League Soccer fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 135 Major League Soccer tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 68.3% on average and landing 64.5%. Its best-calibrated Major League Soccer market so far is btts (65.0% claimed against 62.5% hit over 8 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.

Frequently asked questions

How are these Major League Soccer predictions made?: Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Where does the Major League Soccer table come from?: It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
Which Major League Soccer market is the model most reliable in?: On settled Major League Soccer tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is btts: 65.0% claimed against 62.5% hit over 8 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
How far ahead are Major League Soccer fixtures predicted?: Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Major League Soccer by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.