NWSL Women predictions
USA · second tier · 16 teams · table updated 1 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every NWSL Women match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter NWSL Women in the Bet Finder.
This week's NWSL Women fixtures
NWSL Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 34 | 20 | +14 | 54 | |
| 2 |  San Diego Wave W | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 38 | 27 | +11 | 48 | |
| 3 |  Washington Spirit W | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 36 | 24 | +12 | 46 | |
| 4 |  Utah Royals W | 26 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 43 | 34 | +9 | 45 | |
| 5 |  Portland Thorns W | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 43 | |
| 6 |  Angel City W | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 42 | |
| 7 |  Kansas City W | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 43 | 37 | +6 | 41 | |
| 8 |  Seattle Reign FC W | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 31 | +2 | 40 | |
| 9 |  North Carolina Courage W | 26 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 49 | 39 | +10 | 39 | |
| 10 |  Denver Summit W | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 37 | +5 | 35 | |
| 11 |  Orlando Pride W | 26 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 33 | |
| 12 |  Houston Dash W | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 30 | |
| 13 |  Bay FC W | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 27 | 37 | -10 | 26 | |
| 14 |  Boston Legacy W | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 26 | |
| 15 |  Racing Louisville W | 26 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 23 | |
| 16 |  Chicago Red Stars W | 26 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 15 | 60 | -45 | 17 |
- Promotion - NWSL Women (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Official NWSL Women table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-01.
This season in numbers
The model's NWSL Women record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 11 | 61.0% | 36.4% | -24.6 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 8 | 82.3% | 50.0% | -32.3 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 2 | 53.9% | 100.0% | +46.1 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 2 | 76.0% | 100.0% | +24.0 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 6 | 63.7% | 33.3% | -30.4 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled NWSL Women matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent NWSL Women results
- 28 Sept · 0:00Utah Royals W2-1North Carolina Courage WNo pick
- 27 Sept · 22:00Bay FC W1-3Orlando Pride WNo pick
- 27 Sept · 1:45Portland Thorns W1-1Houston Dash WHome Win✗
- 26 Sept · 23:30Washington Spirit W0-1Angel City WNo pick
- 26 Sept · 17:30Kansas City W4-1Denver Summit WNo pick
- 26 Sept · 1:30Seattle Reign FC W2-0Boston Legacy WNo pick
- 26 Sept · 1:00NJ/NY Gotham FC W3-1Chicago Red Stars WHome Win✓
- 25 Sept · 23:30Racing Louisville W0-2San Diego Wave WNo pick
- 21 Sept · 0:05Utah Royals W0-3Angel City WNo pick
- 21 Sept · 0:05Bay FC W2-0Racing Louisville WNo pick
About NWSL Women
NWSL Women is the second tier of USA football with 16 teams. The 2026 season has produced 2.79 goals per game over 208 matches: both teams scored in 53%, 56% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 48% with 17% drawn. NJ/NY Gotham FC W lead the table on 54 points from 26 games.
How the model handles NWSL Women
Every NWSL Women fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 29 NWSL Women tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 68.0% on average and landing 48.3%. Its best-calibrated NWSL Women market so far is home win (61.0% claimed against 36.4% hit over 11 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these NWSL Women predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the NWSL Women table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which NWSL Women market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled NWSL Women tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 61.0% claimed against 36.4% hit over 11 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are NWSL Women fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter NWSL Women by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.