Challenge League predictions
Switzerland · second tier · 10 teams · table updated 22 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Challenge League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Challenge League in the Bet Finder.
This week's Challenge League fixtures
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 3 | +14 | 21 | |
| 2 |  FC Winterthur | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 18 | |
| 3 |  Yverdon Sport | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 16 | |
| 4 |  SC Kriens | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 14 | |
| 5 |  FC Aarau | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 | |
| 6 |  Neuchatel Xamax FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 12 | |
| 7 |  Rapperswil | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 10 | |
| 8 |  Étoile Carouge | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 9 | |
| 9 |  FC WIL 1900 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 9 | |
| 10 |  Stade Nyonnais | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 2 |
- Promotion
- Promotion Play-offs
- Relegation
Official Challenge League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-22.
This season in numbers
The model's Challenge League record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 5 | 60.2% | 20.0% | -40.2 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 5 | 81.4% | 60.0% | -21.4 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 25 | 63.1% | 60.0% | -3.1 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 6 | 64.6% | 33.3% | -31.3 |
Settled Challenge League matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Challenge League results
- 20 Sept · 13:00Yverdon Sport0-0Stade Lausanne-OuchyNo pick
- 18 Sept · 19:15FC Winterthur2-1FC AarauOver 2.5✓
- 18 Sept · 18:30Neuchatel Xamax FC0-3RapperswilBTTS✗
- 18 Sept · 18:30FC WIL 19005-0Stade NyonnaisOver 2.5✓
- 18 Sept · 18:30SC Kriens4-1Étoile CarougeNo pick
- 12 Sept · 17:00FC Aarau2-2SC KriensNo pick
- 11 Sept · 19:15Étoile Carouge0-1FC WinterthurOver 2.5✗
- 11 Sept · 18:30Stade Nyonnais1-3Neuchatel Xamax FCOver 2.5✓
- 11 Sept · 18:30Rapperswil2-0Yverdon SportNo pick
- 11 Sept · 18:30Stade Lausanne-Ouchy4-0FC WIL 1900Over 2.5✓
About Challenge League
Challenge League is the second tier of Switzerland football with 10 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.02 goals per game over 45 matches: both teams scored in 56%, 60% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 44% with 27% drawn. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy lead the table on 21 points from 9 games.
How the model handles Challenge League
Every Challenge League fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 41 Challenge League tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 65.2% on average and landing 51.2%. Its best-calibrated Challenge League market so far is over 2.5 (63.1% claimed against 60.0% hit over 25 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Challenge League predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Challenge League table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Challenge League market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Challenge League tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 63.1% claimed against 60.0% hit over 25 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Challenge League fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Challenge League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.