1. Liga Promotion predictions
Switzerland · third tier · 18 teams · table updated 1 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every 1. Liga Promotion match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter 1. Liga Promotion in the Bet Finder.
This week's 1. Liga Promotion fixtures
- 4 Oct · 15:00BellinzonavZürich IIOver 2.5Moderate
- 10 Oct · 15:00BrühlvGrand-SaconnexNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00BavoisvAmical Saint-PrexNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00Luzern IIvFC SchaffhausenNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00YF JuventusvBellinzonaNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 16:00BullevParadisoNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 16:00Young Boys IIvChamNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 16:00Zürich IIvBreitenrainNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 14:00Biel-BiennevBasel IINo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 14:30Lugano IIvKreuzlingenNo pick yet
1. Liga Promotion table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Biel-Bienne | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 22 | |
| 2 |  FC Schaffhausen | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 19 | |
| 3 |  Cham | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 19 | |
| 4 |  Grand-Saconnex | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 18 | |
| 5 |  Bulle | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 17 | |
| 6 |  Paradiso | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 16 | |
| 7 |  YF Juventus | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 | |
| 8 |  Amical Saint-Prex | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 13 | |
| 9 |  Basel II | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 12 | |
| 10 |  Kreuzlingen | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 12 | |
| 11 |  Breitenrain | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 | |
| 12 |  Young Boys II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 11 | |
| 13 |  Zürich II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 | |
| 14 |  Brühl | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 | |
| 15 |  Lugano II | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 9 | |
| 16 |  Bavois | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 | |
| 17 |  Luzern II | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 7 | |
| 18 |  Bellinzona | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 5 |
- Promotion - Challenge League
- Relegation
Official 1. Liga Promotion table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-01.
This season in numbers
The model's 1. Liga Promotion record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 6 | 60.8% | 33.3% | -27.5 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 3 | 81.8% | 33.3% | -48.5 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 44 | 62.1% | 65.9% | +3.8 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 10 | 65.2% | 50.0% | -15.2 |
Settled 1. Liga Promotion matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent 1. Liga Promotion results
- 30 Sept · 19:00Kreuzlingen3-0BrühlNo pick
- 27 Sept · 15:00Bellinzona2-2BreitenrainOver 2.5✓
- 26 Sept · 18:30Bulle0-1FC SchaffhausenNo pick
- 26 Sept · 18:00Biel-Bienne2-0BavoisOver 2.5✗
- 26 Sept · 16:30Lugano II0-1ChamOver 2.5✗
- 26 Sept · 15:00Zürich II1-2Grand-SaconnexOver 2.5✓
- 26 Sept · 15:00Young Boys II0-2Basel IIBTTS✗
- 26 Sept · 15:00YF Juventus1-1KreuzlingenNo pick
- 26 Sept · 15:00Luzern II2-3Amical Saint-PrexOver 2.5✓
- 26 Sept · 15:00Brühl0-2ParadisoNo pick
About 1. Liga Promotion
1. Liga Promotion is the third tier of Switzerland football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.18 goals per game over 82 matches: both teams scored in 56%, 66% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 46% with 15% drawn. Biel-Bienne lead the table on 22 points from 9 games.
How the model handles 1. Liga Promotion
Every 1. Liga Promotion fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 63 1. Liga Promotion tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 63.4% on average and landing 58.7%. Its best-calibrated 1. Liga Promotion market so far is over 2.5 (62.1% claimed against 65.9% hit over 44 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these 1. Liga Promotion predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the 1. Liga Promotion table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which 1. Liga Promotion market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled 1. Liga Promotion tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 62.1% claimed against 65.9% hit over 44 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are 1. Liga Promotion fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter 1. Liga Promotion by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.