Segunda División predictions
Spain · second tier · 22 teams · table updated 2 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Segunda División match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Segunda División in the Bet Finder.
This week's Segunda División fixtures
- 4 Oct · 13:00Real Sociedad IIvGranada CFDrawStrong
- 4 Oct · 15:15Sporting GijonvCelta de Vigo IINo pick yet
- 4 Oct · 17:30CastellónvAD Ceuta FCNo pick yet
- 4 Oct · 17:30Las PalmasvValladolidNo pick yet
- 4 Oct · 20:00GironavMallorcaHome or DrawSolid
- 5 Oct · 19:30CordobavTenerifeNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:15AD Ceuta FCvSabadellNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 17:30EldensevCordobaNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 20:00Celta de Vigo IIvReal Sociedad IINo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 13:00FC AndorravCastellónNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 15:15AlmeriavLeganesNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 17:30MallorcavLas PalmasNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 20:00CadizvSporting GijonNo pick yet
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Castellón | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 19 | |
| 2 |  Eibar | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 18 | |
| 3 |  Almeria | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 15 | |
| 4 |  Burgos | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 14 | |
| 5 |  Girona | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 13 | |
| 6 |  Mallorca | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 13 | |
| 7 |  Sabadell | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 | |
| 8 |  Oviedo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 11 | |
| 9 |  Tenerife | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 11 | |
| 10 |  Leganes | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 11 | |
| 11 |  Las Palmas | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 | |
| 12 |  Sporting Gijon | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 10 | |
| 13 |  Granada CF | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 | |
| 14 |  Real Sociedad II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 | |
| 15 |  Eldense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 8 | |
| 16 |  Celta de Vigo II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 | |
| 17 |  Valladolid | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 | |
| 18 |  FC Andorra | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 6 | |
| 19 |  Cordoba | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 6 | |
| 20 |  Cadiz | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 | |
| 21 |  AD Ceuta FC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 4 | |
| 22 |  Albacete | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 1 |
- Promotion - LaLiga
- Promotion - LaLiga2 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
- Relegation
Official Segunda División table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-02.
This season in numbers
The model's Segunda División record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 4 | 61.0% | 50.0% | -11.0 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 9 | 82.3% | 66.7% | -15.6 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 1 | 57.7% | 0.0% | -57.7 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Segunda División matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Segunda División results
- 3 Oct · 13:00Albacete1-3EibarNo pick
- 2 Oct · 19:30Eldense4-1OviedoNo pick
- 28 Sept · 19:30Leganes0-2CastellónNo pick
- 27 Sept · 20:00Oviedo2-0Sporting GijonNo pick
- 27 Sept · 17:30Eibar3-2Las PalmasNo pick
- 27 Sept · 17:30Burgos1-0EldenseNo pick
- 27 Sept · 15:15Mallorca0-1AlmeriaNo pick
- 27 Sept · 13:00Valladolid3-1CordobaNo pick
- 26 Sept · 17:30Tenerife1-1CadizHome or Draw✓
- 26 Sept · 17:30Celta de Vigo II1-1SabadellNo pick
About Segunda División
Segunda División is the second tier of Spain football with 22 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.56 goals per game over 79 matches: both teams scored in 47%, 46% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 43% with 20% drawn. Castellón lead the table on 19 points from 7 games.
How the model handles Segunda División
Every Segunda División fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 14 Segunda División tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 74.5% on average and landing 57.2%. Its best-calibrated Segunda División market so far is home or draw (82.3% claimed against 66.7% hit over 9 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Segunda División predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Segunda División table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Segunda División market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Segunda División tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 82.3% claimed against 66.7% hit over 9 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Segunda División fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Segunda División by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.