La Liga predictions
Spain · top flight · 20 teams · table updated 22 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every La Liga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter La Liga in the Bet Finder.
This week's La Liga fixtures
- 9 Oct · 20:00MalagavEspanyolNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 13:00Rayo VallecanovAthletic ClubNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:15AlavesvAtletico MadridNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 17:30BarcelonavGetafeNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 20:00Real MadridvVillarrealNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 13:00ElchevCelta VigoNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 15:15Real SociedadvDeportivo La CorunaNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 17:30Real BetisvOsasunaNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 20:00Racing SantandervValenciaNo pick yet
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 7 | +24 | 21 | |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 16 | |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 16 | |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 15 | |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 13 | |
| 6 |  Alaves | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 11 | |
| 7 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 10 | |
| 8 |  Real Sociedad | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 10 | |
| 9 |  Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 8 | |
| 10 |  Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 | |
| 11 |  Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 8 | |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 | |
| 13 |  Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 8 | |
| 14 |  Celta Vigo | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 | |
| 15 |  Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 | |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 7 | |
| 17 |  Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 5 | |
| 18 |  Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 | |
| 19 |  Valencia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 | |
| 20 |  Malaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 |
- Champions League league stage
- Europa League league stage
- ECL Playoffs
- Relegation
Official La Liga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-22.
This season in numbers
The model's La Liga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 12 | 66.5% | 83.3% | +16.8 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 14 | 85.2% | 92.9% | +7.7 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 6 | 59.0% | 100.0% | +41.0 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 6 | 80.7% | 100.0% | +19.3 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 6 | 60.7% | 83.3% | +22.6 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled La Liga matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent La Liga results
- 20 Sept · 20:00Valencia2-3Real SociedadNo pick
- 20 Sept · 17:30Villarreal3-1LevanteHome or Draw✓
- 20 Sept · 17:30Deportivo La Coruna1-1Real BetisNo pick
- 20 Sept · 15:15Atletico Madrid2-1Real MadridNo pick
- 20 Sept · 13:00Getafe1-0MalagaDraw✗
- 19 Sept · 20:00Sevilla1-3BarcelonaAway or Draw✓
- 19 Sept · 17:30Celta Vigo5-0Racing SantanderNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:15Athletic Club0-0AlavesHome or Draw✓
- 19 Sept · 13:00Osasuna1-1Rayo VallecanoNo pick
- 18 Sept · 20:00Espanyol1-3ElcheHome or Draw✗
About La Liga
La Liga is the top flight of Spain football with 20 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.04 goals per game over 69 matches: both teams scored in 58%, 57% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 45% with 25% drawn. Barcelona lead the table on 21 points from 7 games.
How the model handles La Liga
Every La Liga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 44 La Liga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 72.6% on average and landing 90.9%. Its best-calibrated La Liga market so far is home or draw (85.2% claimed against 92.9% hit over 14 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these La Liga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the La Liga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which La Liga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled La Liga tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 85.2% claimed against 92.9% hit over 14 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are La Liga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter La Liga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.