Eredivisie predictions
Netherlands · top flight · 18 teams · table updated 24 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Eredivisie match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Eredivisie in the Bet Finder.
This week's Eredivisie fixtures
- 9 Oct · 19:00PSV EindhovenvHeerenveenNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:30GO Ahead EaglesvSparta RotterdamNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 17:45FeyenoordvAZ AlkmaarNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 19:00Fortuna SittardvTwenteNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 20:00AjaxvNEC NijmegenNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 11:15UtrechtvWillem IINo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 13:30TelstarvADO Den HaagNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 13:30PEC ZwollevCambuurNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 15:45ExcelsiorvGroningenNo pick yet
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 19 | |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 7 | +18 | 17 | |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 10 | +14 | 16 | |
| 4 |  Twente | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 16 | |
| 5 |  Ajax | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 14 | |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 | |
| 7 |  Excelsior | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 11 | |
| 8 |  Groningen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 11 | |
| 9 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 10 | |
| 10 |  Heerenveen | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 9 | |
| 11 |  NEC Nijmegen | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 8 | |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 5 | |
| 13 |  Telstar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 5 | |
| 14 |  Cambuur | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 | |
| 15 |  Utrecht | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 5 | |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 4 | |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 2 | |
| 18 |  Willem II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 2 |
- Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
- Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
- Eredivisie (Relegation)
- Relegation - Eerste Divisie
Official Eredivisie table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-24.
This season in numbers
The model's Eredivisie record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 17 | 68.8% | 58.8% | -10.0 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 16 | 85.7% | 93.8% | +8.1 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 10 | 59.7% | 100.0% | +40.3 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 10 | 79.0% | 100.0% | +21.0 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 32 | 65.0% | 75.0% | +10.0 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 1 | 64.6% | 100.0% | +35.4 |
Settled Eredivisie matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Eredivisie results
- 20 Sept · 15:45NEC Nijmegen1-1GO Ahead EaglesNo pick
- 20 Sept · 13:30Twente3-2PSV EindhovenOver 2.5✓
- 20 Sept · 13:30AZ Alkmaar1-0TelstarHome or Draw✓
- 20 Sept · 11:15Feyenoord5-0UtrechtOver 2.5✓
- 19 Sept · 20:00Willem II0-1Fortuna SittardNo pick
- 19 Sept · 19:00Ajax2-2ExcelsiorHome or Draw✓
- 19 Sept · 17:45Sparta Rotterdam0-4HeerenveenNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:30ADO Den Haag1-1CambuurBTTS✓
- 18 Sept · 19:00Groningen3-0PEC ZwolleNo pick
- 15 Sept · 19:00Ajax5-1Willem IIOver 2.5✓
About Eredivisie
Eredivisie is the top flight of Netherlands football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.81 goals per game over 63 matches: both teams scored in 70%, 76% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 30% with 27% drawn. AZ Alkmaar lead the table on 19 points from 7 games.
How the model handles Eredivisie
Every Eredivisie fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 86 Eredivisie tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 70.6% on average and landing 81.4%. Its best-calibrated Eredivisie market so far is home or draw (85.7% claimed against 93.8% hit over 16 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Eredivisie predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Eredivisie table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Eredivisie market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Eredivisie tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 85.7% claimed against 93.8% hit over 16 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Eredivisie fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Eredivisie by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.