How are these Eerste Divisie predictions made?

Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.

Where does the Eerste Divisie table come from?

It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.

Which Eerste Divisie market is the model most reliable in?

On settled Eerste Divisie tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 60.7% claimed against 65.5% hit over 29 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.

How far ahead are Eerste Divisie fixtures predicted?

Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public.

Eerste Divisie predictions

Netherlands · second tier · table updated 1 Oct

Calibrated probabilities for every Eerste Divisie match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Eerste Divisie in the Bet Finder.

This week's Eerste Divisie fixtures

Eerste Divisie table

Eerste Divisie: Regular season

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Heracles	8	7	0	1	26	10	+16	21
2	Almere City FC	8	5	1	2	18	7	+11	16
3	MVV	8	5	1	2	12	15	-3	16
4	VVV Venlo	8	5	0	3	21	14	+7	15
5	Roda	8	4	3	1	9	5	+4	15
6	Emmen	8	5	0	3	18	17	+1	15
7	Waalwijk	8	3	4	1	18	11	+7	13
8	Vitesse	8	4	1	3	13	11	+2	13
9	NAC Breda	8	4	1	3	17	17	0	13
10	Jong AZ	9	4	1	4	22	17	+5	13
11	FC Volendam	8	4	0	4	20	16	+4	12
12	Jong PSV U21	9	3	3	3	14	16	-2	12
13	FC Eindhoven	8	3	1	4	13	17	-4	10
14	Helmond Sport	8	2	2	4	13	14	-1	8
15	Jong Ajax	9	2	2	5	13	22	-9	8
16	Den Bosch	8	2	1	5	12	17	-5	7
17	Dordrecht	8	2	1	5	12	23	-11	7
18	De Graafschap	8	2	1	5	9	20	-11	7
19	Jong Utrecht	9	2	1	6	15	21	-6	7
20	FC OSS	8	2	0	6	8	13	-5	6

Eerste Divisie: Period 1

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Heracles	8	7	0	1	26	10	+16	21
2	Almere City FC	8	5	1	2	18	7	+11	16
3	MVV	8	5	1	2	12	15	-3	16
4	VVV Venlo	8	5	0	3	21	14	+7	15
5	Roda	8	4	3	1	9	5	+4	15
6	Emmen	8	5	0	3	18	17	+1	15
7	Waalwijk	8	3	4	1	18	11	+7	13
8	Vitesse	8	4	1	3	13	11	+2	13
9	NAC Breda	8	4	1	3	17	17	0	13
10	Jong AZ	9	4	1	4	22	17	+5	13
11	FC Volendam	8	4	0	4	20	16	+4	12
12	Jong PSV U21	9	3	3	3	14	16	-2	12
13	FC Eindhoven	8	3	1	4	13	17	-4	10
14	Helmond Sport	8	2	2	4	13	14	-1	8
15	Jong Ajax	9	2	2	5	13	22	-9	8
16	Den Bosch	8	2	1	5	12	17	-5	7
17	Dordrecht	8	2	1	5	12	23	-11	7
18	De Graafschap	8	2	1	5	9	20	-11	7
19	Jong Utrecht	9	2	1	6	15	21	-6	7
20	FC OSS	8	2	0	6	8	13	-5	6

Eerste Divisie: Period 2

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	De Graafschap	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	VVV Venlo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Den Bosch	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Dordrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	FC Eindhoven	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Emmen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Helmond Sport	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	MVV	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Almere City FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FC OSS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	FC Volendam	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Waalwijk	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	NAC Breda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Roda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Vitesse	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Heracles	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Jong PSV U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Jong Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Jong AZ	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Jong Utrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Eerste Divisie: Period 3

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	De Graafschap	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	VVV Venlo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Den Bosch	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Dordrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	FC Eindhoven	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Emmen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Helmond Sport	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	MVV	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Almere City FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FC OSS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	FC Volendam	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Waalwijk	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	NAC Breda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Roda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Vitesse	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Heracles	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Jong PSV U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Jong Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Jong AZ	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Jong Utrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Eerste Divisie: Period 4

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	De Graafschap	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	VVV Venlo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Den Bosch	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Dordrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	FC Eindhoven	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Emmen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Helmond Sport	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	MVV	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Almere City FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FC OSS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	FC Volendam	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Waalwijk	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	NAC Breda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Roda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Vitesse	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Heracles	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Jong PSV U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Jong Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Jong AZ	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Jong Utrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Promotion - Eredivisie
Promotion - Eredivisie (Promotion)

Official Eerste Divisie table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-01.

This season in numbers

3.70

goals per game (83 matches)

71%

both teams scored

70%

over 2.5 goals

86%

over 1.5 goals

51%

over 3.5 goals

57%

home wins

16%

draws

28%

away wins

The model's Eerste Divisie record

Market	Tips	Claimed	Hit	Gap
Home win≥ 57%	5	59.4%	80.0%	+20.6
Home or draw≥ 80%	4	81.7%	75.0%	-6.7
Away win≥ 50%	1	50.8%	0.0%	-50.8
Away or draw≥ 73%	1	73.7%	100.0%	+26.3
Over 2.5≥ 57%	29	60.7%	65.5%	+4.8
BTTS≥ 63%	3	64.6%	66.7%	+2.1

Settled Eerste Divisie matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.

Recent Eerste Divisie results

About Eerste Divisie

Eerste Divisie is the second tier of Netherlands football played across 5 groups. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.70 goals per game over 83 matches: both teams scored in 71%, 70% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 57% with 16% drawn. The table is published as Eerste Divisie: Regular season, Eerste Divisie: Period 1, Eerste Divisie: Period 2, Eerste Divisie: Period 3, Eerste Divisie: Period 4.

How the model handles Eerste Divisie

Every Eerste Divisie fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 43 Eerste Divisie tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 62.8% on average and landing 67.4%. Its best-calibrated Eerste Divisie market so far is over 2.5 (60.7% claimed against 65.5% hit over 29 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.

Frequently asked questions

How are these Eerste Divisie predictions made?: Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Where does the Eerste Divisie table come from?: It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
Which Eerste Divisie market is the model most reliable in?: On settled Eerste Divisie tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 60.7% claimed against 65.5% hit over 29 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
How far ahead are Eerste Divisie fixtures predicted?: Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Eerste Divisie by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.