Serie C predictions
Brazil · fourth tier · table updated 29 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Serie C match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Serie C in the Bet Finder.
This week's Serie C fixtures
Serie C table
First stage
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Botafogo PB | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 19 | +9 | 33 | |
| 2 |  Brusque | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 22 | +6 | 32 | |
| 3 |  Ferroviária | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 15 | +7 | 30 | |
| 4 |  Maringá | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 32 | 30 | +2 | 30 | |
| 5 |  Floresta | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 30 | |
| 6 |  Inter De Limeira | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 30 | |
| 7 |  Paysandu | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 29 | |
| 8 |  Santa Cruz | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 29 | |
| 9 |  Ypiranga-RS | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 27 | 24 | +3 | 29 | |
| 10 |  Guarani Campinas | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 34 | 24 | +10 | 28 | |
| 11 |  Figueirense | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 28 | |
| 12 |  Maranhão | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 27 | |
| 13 |  Amazonas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 26 | |
| 14 |  Caxias | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 25 | |
| 15 |  Ituano | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 22 | |
| 16 |  Volta Redonda | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 21 | |
| 17 |  Barra | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 21 | |
| 18 |  Anápolis | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 19 | |
| 19 |  AO Itabaiana | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 17 | |
| 20 |  Confiança | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 13 |
Second stage - Group A
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferroviária | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 8 | |
| 2 | Inter De Limeira | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 6 | |
| 3 | Brusque | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 5 | |
| 4 | Paysandu | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
Second stage - Group B
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santa Cruz | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 10 | |
| 2 | Maringá | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 7 | |
| 3 | Floresta | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 | |
| 4 | Botafogo PB | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
- Play-offs
- Relegation
- Promotion
Official Serie C table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-29.
This season in numbers
The model's Serie C record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 3 | 58.6% | 66.7% | +8.1 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 8 | 82.0% | 75.0% | -7.0 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 0 | — | — | — |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Serie C matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Serie C results
- 27 Sept · 22:30Brusque1-1FerroviáriaNo pick
- 26 Sept · 23:30Inter De Limeira2-0PaysanduNo pick
- 26 Sept · 21:00Floresta1-1Santa CruzDraw✓
- 26 Sept · 21:00Botafogo PB0-0MaringáNo pick
- 20 Sept · 22:30Paysandu2-2Inter De LimeiraNo pick
- 20 Sept · 22:30Ferroviária3-2BrusqueHome or Draw✓
- 20 Sept · 20:00Santa Cruz1-0FlorestaNo pick
- 19 Sept · 21:00Maringá2-0Botafogo PBNo pick
- 13 Sept · 22:30Brusque2-2Inter De LimeiraNo pick
- 13 Sept · 20:00Ferroviária1-0PaysanduNo pick
About Serie C
Serie C is the fourth tier of Brazil football played across 3 groups. The 2026 season has produced 2.27 goals per game over 206 matches: both teams scored in 48%, 41% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 46% with 28% drawn. The table is published as First stage, Second stage - Group A, Second stage - Group B.
How the model handles Serie C
Every Serie C fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 11 Serie C tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 75.6% on average and landing 72.7%. Its best-calibrated Serie C market so far is home or draw (82.0% claimed against 75.0% hit over 8 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Serie C predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Serie C table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Serie C market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Serie C tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 82.0% claimed against 75.0% hit over 8 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Serie C fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Serie C by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.