Serie A predictions
Brazil · top flight · 20 teams · table updated 2 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Serie A match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Serie A in the Bet Finder.
This week's Serie A fixtures
- 7 Oct · 23:30RB BragantinovMirassolNo pick yet
- 7 Oct · 23:30InternacionalvCorinthiansNo pick yet
- 7 Oct · 23:30RemovGremioNo pick yet
- 8 Oct · 0:00VitoriavChapecoense-scNo pick yet
- 8 Oct · 0:30BotafogovVasco DA GamaNo pick yet
- 8 Oct · 1:30CruzeirovSao PauloNo pick yet
- 8 Oct · 23:30SantosvFlamengoNo pick yet
- 9 Oct · 0:00Atletico ParanaensevAtletico-MGNo pick yet
- 9 Oct · 1:30FluminensevCoritibaNo pick yet
- 9 Oct · 1:30PalmeirasvBahiaNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 21:00Vasco DA GamavRemoNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 1:00Sao PaulovVitoriaNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 20:00Atletico-MGvSantosNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 21:30FlamengovFluminenseNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 21:30GremiovInternacionalNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 21:30PalmeirasvCorinthiansNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 23:30BahiavMirassolNo pick yet
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 55 | 23 | +32 | 60 | |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 57 | |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 43 | 32 | +11 | 49 | |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 48 | |
| 5 |  Bahia | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 46 | |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 45 | |
| 7 |  Santos | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 43 | 41 | +2 | 41 | |
| 8 |  Atletico-MG | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 36 | 32 | +4 | 40 | |
| 9 |  Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 38 | |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 33 | 31 | +2 | 36 | |
| 11 |  Sao Paulo | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 33 | 32 | +1 | 36 | |
| 12 |  Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 35 | |
| 13 |  Vitoria | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 33 | |
| 14 |  Corinthians | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 32 | |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 32 | |
| 16 |  Vasco DA Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 31 | |
| 17 |  Gremio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 29 | |
| 18 |  Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 28 | |
| 19 |  Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 23 | |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 29 | 53 | -24 | 18 |
- Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
- Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
- Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
- Relegation - Serie B
Official Serie A table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-02.
This season in numbers
The model's Serie A record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 17 | 61.3% | 58.8% | -2.5 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 27 | 82.9% | 88.9% | +6.0 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 2 | 57.3% | 100.0% | +42.7 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 2 | 80.0% | 100.0% | +20.0 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 0 | — | — | — |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Serie A matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Serie A results
- 3 Oct · 22:30Atletico-MG1-0RB BragantinoHome or Draw✓
- 3 Oct · 0:00Sao Paulo1-2SantosNo pick
- 20 Sept · 23:30Atletico Paranaense2-1BahiaNo pick
- 20 Sept · 22:30Flamengo2-1RB BragantinoHome or Draw✓
- 20 Sept · 20:00Vitoria1-3CruzeiroNo pick
- 20 Sept · 20:00Corinthians1-3FluminenseNo pick
- 20 Sept · 15:00Gremio0-0PalmeirasNo pick
- 20 Sept · 1:00Sao Paulo1-0InternacionalNo pick
- 20 Sept · 0:30Vasco DA Gama5-0CoritibaHome or Draw✓
- 19 Sept · 22:30Remo1-2SantosNo pick
About Serie A
Serie A is the top flight of Brazil football with 20 teams. The 2026 season has produced 2.66 goals per game over 279 matches: both teams scored in 60%, 52% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 47% with 28% drawn. Flamengo lead the table on 60 points from 28 games.
How the model handles Serie A
Every Serie A fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 48 Serie A tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 74.1% on average and landing 79.2%. Its best-calibrated Serie A market so far is home win (61.3% claimed against 58.8% hit over 17 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Serie A predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Serie A table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Serie A market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Serie A tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 61.3% claimed against 58.8% hit over 17 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Serie A fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Serie A by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.