Serie B predictions
Brazil · second tier · 20 teams · table updated 2 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Serie B match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Serie B in the Bet Finder.
This week's Serie B fixtures
- 6 Oct · 23:30Sport RecifevSão BernardoHome or DrawModerate
- 7 Oct · 0:30GoiasvAthletic ClubNo pick yet
- 7 Oct · 1:35Ponte PretavJuventudeNo pick yet
- 7 Oct · 23:30AvaivLondrinaNo pick yet
- 7 Oct · 23:30Operario-PRvBotafogo SPNo pick yet
- 8 Oct · 0:30America MineirovFortaleza ECNo pick yet
- 8 Oct · 0:30CRBvAtletico GoianienseNo pick yet
- 8 Oct · 0:30Vila NovavCuiabaNo pick yet
- 8 Oct · 23:30CearavCriciumaNo pick yet
- 8 Oct · 23:30Nautico RecifevNovorizontinoNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 20:00JuventudevSão BernardoNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 20:10Atletico GoianiensevSport RecifeNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 21:30Nautico RecifevVila NovaNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 22:30CuiabavAvaiNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 22:30Operario-PRvGoiasNo pick yet
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vila Nova | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 43 | 31 | +12 | 54 | |
| 2 |  Juventude | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 32 | 19 | +13 | 53 | |
| 3 |  Fortaleza EC | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 35 | 26 | +9 | 52 | |
| 4 |  Novorizontino | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 49 | 27 | +22 | 51 | |
| 5 |  Criciuma | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 31 | 27 | +4 | 50 | |
| 6 |  Atletico Goianiense | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 37 | 27 | +10 | 49 | |
| 7 |  CRB | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 45 | 41 | +4 | 48 | |
| 8 |  Operario-PR | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 43 | 38 | +5 | 48 | |
| 9 |  Sport Recife | 31 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 42 | 33 | +9 | 47 | |
| 10 |  Cuiaba | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 43 | |
| 11 |  Goias | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 42 | |
| 12 |  São Bernardo | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 40 | 31 | +9 | 42 | |
| 13 |  Athletic Club | 31 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 37 | 35 | +2 | 42 | |
| 14 |  Nautico Recife | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 38 | 37 | +1 | 41 | |
| 15 |  Ceara | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 | |
| 16 |  Botafogo SP | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 35 | |
| 17 |  Avai | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 30 | |
| 18 |  Londrina | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 28 | |
| 19 |  America Mineiro | 30 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 21 | 50 | -29 | 17 | |
| 20 |  Ponte Preta | 30 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 17 | 64 | -47 | 13 |
- Promotion
- Promotion Play-offs
- Relegation
Official Serie B table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-02.
This season in numbers
The model's Serie B record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 11 | 62.9% | 90.9% | +28.0 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 18 | 83.9% | 94.4% | +10.5 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 1 | 68.9% | 0.0% | -68.9 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Serie B matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Serie B results
- 2 Oct · 1:00Novorizontino3-0GoiasNo pick
- 2 Oct · 0:30Athletic Club1-2Sport RecifeHome or Draw✗
- 29 Sept · 23:30Botafogo SP2-0Ponte PretaHome or Draw✓
- 28 Sept · 23:30America Mineiro0-1JuventudeNo pick
- 27 Sept · 22:30Fortaleza EC2-2Athletic ClubNo pick
- 27 Sept · 20:00CRB3-0CuiabaNo pick
- 27 Sept · 15:00Criciuma3-0AvaiNo pick
- 26 Sept · 22:30Goias0-1Atletico GoianienseNo pick
- 26 Sept · 20:30Operario-PR2-2CearaNo pick
- 26 Sept · 20:30Nautico Recife3-1Sport RecifeNo pick
About Serie B
Serie B is the second tier of Brazil football with 20 teams. The 2026 season has produced 2.35 goals per game over 302 matches: both teams scored in 48%, 44% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 45% with 27% drawn. Vila Nova lead the table on 54 points from 30 games.
How the model handles Serie B
Every Serie B fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 30 Serie B tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 75.7% on average and landing 90.0%. Its best-calibrated Serie B market so far is home or draw (83.9% claimed against 94.4% hit over 18 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Serie B predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Serie B table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Serie B market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Serie B tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 83.9% claimed against 94.4% hit over 18 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Serie B fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Serie B by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.