Premier League predictions
Wales · top flight · 16 teams · table updated 1 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Premier League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Premier League in the Bet Finder.
This week's Premier League fixtures
- 9 Oct · 19:45Briton FerryvGAP Connah S Quay FCNo pick yet
- 9 Oct · 19:45Cambrian & ClydachvAmmanford AFCNo pick yet
- 9 Oct · 19:45Cardiff METvTrefelinNo pick yet
- 9 Oct · 19:45Haverfordwest County AFCvCaernarfon TownNo pick yet
- 9 Oct · 19:45HolywellvThe New SaintsNo pick yet
- 9 Oct · 19:45LlandudnovAirbus UKNo pick yet
- 9 Oct · 19:45PenybontvBarry TownNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 17:15Flint Town UnitedvColwyn BayNo pick yet
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  The New Saints | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 5 | +24 | 31 | |
| 2 |  Penybont | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 27 | |
| 3 |  GAP Connah S Quay FC | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 8 | +19 | 25 | |
| 4 |  Caernarfon Town | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 35 | 13 | +22 | 23 | |
| 5 |  Colwyn Bay | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 22 | |
| 6 |  Barry Town | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 20 | +6 | 22 | |
| 7 |  Cardiff MET | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 13 | +9 | 18 | |
| 8 |  Cambrian & Clydach | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 18 | |
| 9 |  Llandudno | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 16 | |
| 10 |  Airbus UK | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 15 | |
| 11 |  Haverfordwest County AFC | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 10 | |
| 12 |  Briton Ferry | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 9 | |
| 13 |  Flint Town United | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 5 | |
| 14 |  Trefelin | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 27 | -22 | 3 | |
| 15 |  Ammanford AFC | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 31 | -24 | 3 | |
| 16 |  Holywell | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 36 | -24 | 2 |
- Promotion - Cymru Premier (Championship Group)
- Promotion - Cymru Premier (Conference League Group)
- Cymru Premier (Relegation Group)
Official Premier League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-01.
This season in numbers
The model's Premier League record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 16 | 65.0% | 75.0% | +10.0 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 14 | 83.0% | 92.9% | +9.9 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 7 | 60.6% | 42.9% | -17.7 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 6 | 80.3% | 66.7% | -13.6 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 47 | 63.0% | 57.4% | -5.6 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 9 | 65.1% | 55.6% | -9.5 |
Settled Premier League matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Premier League results
- 29 Sept · 19:45Cardiff MET1-0Haverfordwest County AFCNo pick
- 26 Sept · 14:30Trefelin1-3The New SaintsAway or Draw✓
- 26 Sept · 14:30Penybont2-1Airbus UKNo pick
- 26 Sept · 14:30Holywell1-1Briton FerryBTTS✓
- 26 Sept · 14:30Flint Town United3-0Ammanford AFCOver 2.5✓
- 26 Sept · 14:30Colwyn Bay1-0Haverfordwest County AFCHome Win✓
- 26 Sept · 14:30Cardiff MET2-2Caernarfon TownNo pick
- 26 Sept · 14:30Cambrian & Clydach4-3LlandudnoOver 2.5✓
- 26 Sept · 14:30Barry Town1-4GAP Connah S Quay FCNo pick
- 19 Sept · 17:30The New Saints2-1LlandudnoOver 2.5✓
About Premier League
Premier League is the top flight of Wales football with 16 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.34 goals per game over 88 matches: both teams scored in 53%, 61% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 51% with 17% drawn. The New Saints lead the table on 31 points from 11 games.
How the model handles Premier League
Every Premier League fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 99 Premier League tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 67.2% on average and landing 64.6%. Its best-calibrated Premier League market so far is over 2.5 (63.0% claimed against 57.4% hit over 47 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Premier League predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Premier League table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Premier League market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Premier League tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 63.0% claimed against 57.4% hit over 47 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Premier League fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Premier League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.