How are these FAW Championship predictions made?

Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.

Where does the FAW Championship table come from?

It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.

Which FAW Championship market is the model most reliable in?

On settled FAW Championship tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is btts: 65.0% claimed against 70.0% hit over 30 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.

How far ahead are FAW Championship fixtures predicted?

Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public.

FAW Championship predictions

Wales · second tier · table updated 3 Oct

Calibrated probabilities for every FAW Championship match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter FAW Championship in the Bet Finder.

This week's FAW Championship fixtures

FAW Championship table

South

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Swansea University	7	5	2	0	22	5	+17	17
2	Aberystwyth Town	7	5	1	1	19	7	+12	16
3	Pontypridd Town	7	5	1	1	18	12	+6	16
4	Caerau (Ely)	9	5	1	3	21	18	+3	16
5	Baglan Dragons	10	5	1	4	11	11	0	16
6	Carmarthen Town	9	4	2	3	20	19	+1	14
7	Treowen Stars	8	4	1	3	17	16	+1	13
8	Afan Lido	10	3	2	5	13	17	-4	11
9	Trethomas Bluebirds	8	2	4	2	15	14	+1	10
10	Ynyshir Albions	7	2	4	1	7	6	+1	10
11	Caerphilly Athletic	8	2	2	4	8	14	-6	8
12	Newport City	6	2	1	3	9	5	+4	7
13	Cardiff Draconians	6	2	1	3	8	11	-3	7
14	Llantwit Major	7	2	1	4	6	16	-10	7
15	Pontardawe Town	7	2	0	5	11	14	-3	6
16	llanelli AFC	10	0	2	8	7	27	-20	2

North

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	9	8	0	1	23	4	+19	24
2	Newtown AFC	8	6	1	1	16	2	+14	19
3	Mold Alexandra	9	5	3	1	23	12	+11	18
4	Bala Town	9	6	0	3	17	14	+3	18
5	Bangor City 1876 FC	9	5	2	2	24	17	+7	17
6	Porthmadog	9	5	2	2	16	11	+5	17
7	Caersws	8	5	1	2	18	11	+7	16
8	Guilsfield	9	3	4	2	15	12	+3	13
9	Buckley Town	9	3	2	4	21	16	+5	11
10	Llanuwchllyn	9	3	2	4	13	22	-9	11
11	Rhyl	9	2	4	3	15	16	-1	10
12	Denbigh Town	10	2	1	7	18	23	-5	7
13	Holyhead Hotspur	9	2	1	6	11	18	-7	7
14	Ruthin Town	9	2	1	6	8	19	-11	7
15	Gresford Athletic	8	1	1	6	5	21	-16	4
16	Penrhyncoch	9	0	1	8	4	29	-25	1

Official FAW Championship table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-03.

This season in numbers

3.41

goals per game (145 matches)

59%

both teams scored

68%

over 2.5 goals

83%

over 1.5 goals

46%

over 3.5 goals

41%

home wins

19%

draws

41%

away wins

The model's FAW Championship record

Market	Tips	Claimed	Hit	Gap
Home win≥ 57%	15	61.9%	46.7%	-15.2
Home or draw≥ 80%	10	82.5%	90.0%	+7.5
Away win≥ 50%	3	53.3%	66.7%	+13.4
Away or draw≥ 73%	3	75.5%	66.7%	-8.8
Over 2.5≥ 57%	87	63.4%	70.1%	+6.7
BTTS≥ 63%	30	65.0%	70.0%	+5.0

Settled FAW Championship matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.

Recent FAW Championship results

About FAW Championship

FAW Championship is the second tier of Wales football played across 2 groups. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.41 goals per game over 145 matches: both teams scored in 59%, 68% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 41% with 19% drawn. The table is published as South, North.

How the model handles FAW Championship

Every FAW Championship fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 148 FAW Championship tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 64.9% on average and landing 68.9%. Its best-calibrated FAW Championship market so far is btts (65.0% claimed against 70.0% hit over 30 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.

Frequently asked questions

How are these FAW Championship predictions made?: Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Where does the FAW Championship table come from?: It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
Which FAW Championship market is the model most reliable in?: On settled FAW Championship tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is btts: 65.0% claimed against 70.0% hit over 30 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
How far ahead are FAW Championship fixtures predicted?: Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter FAW Championship by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.

Other Wales competitions

Premier League