Süper Lig predictions
Turkey · top flight · 18 teams · table updated 24 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Süper Lig match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Süper Lig in the Bet Finder.
This week's Süper Lig fixtures
- 9 Oct · 18:00GalatasarayvKasımpaşaNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 11:30Gençlerbirliği S.K.vAmedNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 14:00AlanyasporvErzurumspor FKNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 14:00SamsunsporvTrabzonsporNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 17:00RizesporvFenerbahçeNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 11:30KonyasporvBaşakşehirNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 14:00Gaziantep FKvÇorum FKNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 17:00BeşiktaşvKocaelisporNo pick yet
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Amed | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 13 | |
| 2 |  Galatasaray | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 13 | |
| 3 |  Beşiktaş | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 12 | |
| 4 |  Kocaelispor | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 12 | |
| 5 |  Alanyaspor | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 11 | |
| 6 |  Fenerbahçe | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 10 | |
| 7 |  Trabzonspor | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 10 | |
| 8 |  Kasımpaşa | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 | |
| 9 |  Rizespor | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 10 | |
| 10 |  Gaziantep FK | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 | |
| 11 |  Çorum FK | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 7 | |
| 12 |  Başakşehir | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 7 | |
| 13 |  Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 7 | |
| 14 |  Erzurumspor FK | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 7 | |
| 15 |  Konyaspor | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 | |
| 16 |  Samsunspor | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 | |
| 17 |  Göztepe | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 3 | |
| 18 |  Eyüpspor | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 16 | -14 | 3 |
- Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
- Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
- Relegation - 1. Lig
Official Süper Lig table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-24.
This season in numbers
The model's Süper Lig record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 10 | 63.5% | 80.0% | +16.5 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 12 | 82.7% | 83.3% | +0.6 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 2 | 64.2% | 0.0% | -64.2 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 2 | 81.2% | 50.0% | -31.2 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 11 | 61.5% | 63.6% | +2.1 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Süper Lig matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Süper Lig results
- 20 Sept · 18:00Göztepe2-2RizesporNo pick
- 20 Sept · 18:00Amed3-2BeşiktaşNo pick
- 20 Sept · 15:00Fenerbahçe8-0EyüpsporHome or Draw✓
- 20 Sept · 15:00Erzurumspor FK1-0SamsunsporNo pick
- 19 Sept · 18:00Trabzonspor4-0GalatasarayOver 2.5✓
- 19 Sept · 18:00Başakşehir4-0Gençlerbirliği S.K.Home or Draw✓
- 19 Sept · 15:00Kocaelispor2-0Gaziantep FKHome or Draw✓
- 19 Sept · 15:00Çorum FK1-2AlanyasporNo pick
- 18 Sept · 18:00Kasımpaşa0-0KonyasporNo pick
- 14 Sept · 18:00Gaziantep FK0-0FenerbahçeAway or Draw✓
About Süper Lig
Süper Lig is the top flight of Turkey football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.98 goals per game over 54 matches: both teams scored in 46%, 56% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 48% with 20% drawn. Amed lead the table on 13 points from 6 games.
How the model handles Süper Lig
Every Süper Lig fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 37 Süper Lig tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 70.1% on average and landing 70.2%. Its best-calibrated Süper Lig market so far is home or draw (82.7% claimed against 83.3% hit over 12 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Süper Lig predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Süper Lig table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Süper Lig market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Süper Lig tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 82.7% claimed against 83.3% hit over 12 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Süper Lig fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Süper Lig by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.