1. Lig predictions
Turkey · second tier · 20 teams · table updated 24 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every 1. Lig match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter 1. Lig in the Bet Finder.
This week's 1. Lig fixtures
- 9 Oct · 15:00Bodrum FKvKeçiörengücüNo pick yet
- 9 Oct · 15:00SivassporvPendiksporNo pick yet
- 9 Oct · 18:00ÜmraniyesporvSarıyerNo pick yet
- 9 Oct · 18:00Vanspor FKvBandırmasporNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 11:30BolusporvAntalyasporNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 14:00Iğdır FKvBatman PetrolsporNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 17:00İstanbulsporvEsenler EroksporNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 17:00KayserisporvManisa F.K.No pick yet
- 11 Oct · 14:00Fatih KaragümrükvMuğlasporNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 17:00BursasporvMardin 1969No pick yet
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kayserispor | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 3 | +12 | 19 | |
| 2 |  Bursaspor | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 19 | |
| 3 |  Iğdır FK | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 16 | |
| 4 |  Batman Petrolspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 16 | |
| 5 |  Sarıyer | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 14 | |
| 6 |  Keçiörengücü | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 13 | |
| 7 |  Mardin 1969 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 12 | |
| 8 |  Antalyaspor | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 12 | |
| 9 |  Fatih Karagümrük | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 | |
| 10 |  Muğlaspor | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 11 | |
| 11 |  Bandırmaspor | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 10 | |
| 12 |  Pendikspor | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 | |
| 13 |  Manisa F.K. | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 9 | |
| 14 |  Bodrum FK | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 | |
| 15 |  Sivasspor | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 | |
| 16 |  Ümraniyespor | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 | |
| 17 |  Esenler Erokspor | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 5 | |
| 18 |  İstanbulspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 5 | |
| 19 |  Vanspor FK | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4(-2) | |
| 20 |  Boluspor | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 20 | -17 | 1 |
- Promotion - Super Lig
- Promotion - 1. Lig (Play Offs: Final)
- Promotion - 1. Lig (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
- Relegation
Official 1. Lig table via API-Sports · points deductions applied to Vanspor FK · updated 2026-09-24.
This season in numbers
The model's 1. Lig record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 3 | 61.5% | 66.7% | +5.2 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 3 | 82.4% | 66.7% | -15.7 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 2 | 57.7% | 50.0% | -7.7 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled 1. Lig matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent 1. Lig results
- 20 Sept · 18:00Mardin 19690-1KayserisporNo pick
- 20 Sept · 18:00Antalyaspor3-0Vanspor FKNo pick
- 20 Sept · 15:00Pendikspor1-1Bodrum FKNo pick
- 20 Sept · 15:00Manisa F.K.0-1İstanbulsporNo pick
- 19 Sept · 18:00Esenler Erokspor0-2Fatih KaragümrükNo pick
- 19 Sept · 18:00Batman Petrolspor1-2BursasporNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:00Sarıyer2-1BolusporHome Win✓
- 19 Sept · 15:00Keçiörengücü1-1SivassporNo pick
- 18 Sept · 18:00Muğlaspor2-2Iğdır FKNo pick
- 18 Sept · 14:00Bandırmaspor0-1ÜmraniyesporNo pick
About 1. Lig
1. Lig is the second tier of Turkey football with 20 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.59 goals per game over 80 matches: both teams scored in 53%, 46% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 35% with 35% drawn. Kayserispor lead the table on 19 points from 8 games. Vanspor FK (-2) has had points deducted, which the table above reflects.
How the model handles 1. Lig
Every 1. Lig fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 8 1. Lig tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 68.4% on average and landing 62.5%. Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these 1. Lig predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the 1. Lig table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which 1. Lig market is the model most reliable in?
- There are not yet enough settled 1. Lig tips since 23 Jul to say. The record table on this page fills in as the season goes; until then the site-wide track record is the best guide to how each market behaves.
- How far ahead are 1. Lig fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter 1. Lig by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.