League One predictions
Scotland · third tier · 10 teams · table updated 23 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every League One match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter League One in the Bet Finder.
This week's League One fixtures
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ross County | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 4 | +18 | 19 | |
| 2 |  Hamilton Academical | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 1 | +15 | 19 | |
| 3 |  Montrose | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 15 | |
| 4 |  East Kilbride | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 13 | |
| 5 |  Alloa Athletic | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 | |
| 6 |  Airdrie United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 9 | |
| 7 |  East Fife | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 | |
| 8 |  Peterhead | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 7 | |
| 9 |  Cove Rangers | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 5 | |
| 10 |  Queen of the South | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 24 | -18 | 4 |
- Promotion - Championship
- Promotion - League One (Promotion - Play Offs)
- League One (Promotion - Play Offs)
- Relegation - League Two
Official League One table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-23.
This season in numbers
The model's League One record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 1 | 57.5% | 0.0% | -57.5 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 4 | 81.2% | 75.0% | -6.2 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 5 | 60.9% | 20.0% | -40.9 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 1 | 64.6% | 0.0% | -64.6 |
Settled League One matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent League One results
- 19 Sept · 15:00Peterhead1-2Airdrie UnitedNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:00Hamilton Academical4-1Queen of the SouthOver 2.5✓
- 19 Sept · 15:00East Fife1-2MontroseNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:00Cove Rangers0-2Ross CountyNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:00Alloa Athletic1-2East KilbrideNo pick
- 15 Sept · 19:45Ross County8-0Queen of the SouthNo pick
- 12 Sept · 15:00Queen of the South1-1East FifeNo pick
- 12 Sept · 15:00Montrose2-1Cove RangersNo pick
- 12 Sept · 15:00East Kilbride3-1PeterheadHome or Draw✓
- 12 Sept · 15:00Airdrie United1-0Alloa AthleticBTTS✗
About League One
League One is the third tier of Scotland football with 10 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.64 goals per game over 39 matches: both teams scored in 44%, 56% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 49% with 23% drawn. Ross County lead the table on 19 points from 7 games.
How the model handles League One
Every League One fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 11 League One tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 68.3% on average and landing 36.4%. Its best-calibrated League One market so far is over 2.5 (60.9% claimed against 20.0% hit over 5 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these League One predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the League One table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which League One market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled League One tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 60.9% claimed against 20.0% hit over 5 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are League One fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter League One by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.