Segunda Liga predictions
Portugal · second tier · 18 teams · table updated 17 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Segunda Liga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Segunda Liga in the Bet Finder.
This week's Segunda Liga fixtures
- 4 Oct · 11:00FarensevChavesNo pick yet
- 9 Oct · 18:00PenafielvAVSNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 11:00TondelavTorreenseNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 14:00AmarantevPortimonenseNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:30LeixoesvFC Porto BNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 20:30VizelavSporting CP BNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 11:00Lusitânia LourosavChavesNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 14:00FarensevFeirenseNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 18:00União de LeiriavAcademicaNo pick yet
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lusitânia Lourosa | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 16 | |
| 2 |  Penafiel | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 13 | |
| 3 |  Sporting CP B | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 | |
| 4 |  Vizela | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 11 | |
| 5 |  Benfica B | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 | |
| 6 |  União de Leiria | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 10 | |
| 7 |  Leixoes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 | |
| 8 |  Academica | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 | |
| 9 |  Tondela | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 9 | |
| 10 |  Farense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 8 | |
| 11 |  Portimonense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 7 | |
| 12 |  AVS | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 | |
| 13 |  Felgueiras 1932 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 | |
| 14 |  Torreense | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 | |
| 15 |  Amarante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 | |
| 16 |  Chaves | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 | |
| 17 |  FC Porto B | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 | |
| 18 |  Feirense | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 1 |
- Promotion - Liga Portugal
- Promotion - Liga Portugal (Promotion)
- Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)
- Relegation - Liga 3
Official Segunda Liga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-17.
This season in numbers
The model's Segunda Liga record
Not enough settled Segunda Liga tips since 23 Jul to publish a record yet — it fills in as the season goes. Site-wide numbers are on the track record page.
Recent Segunda Liga results
- 14 Sept · 18:00Sporting CP B1-2Lusitânia LourosaNo pick
- 14 Sept · 18:00FC Porto B2-2VizelaDraw✓
- 13 Sept · 15:30Amarante2-2União de LeiriaNo pick
- 13 Sept · 14:00Chaves1-0FeirenseNo pick
- 13 Sept · 11:00AVS0-0FarenseNo pick
- 12 Sept · 14:00Felgueiras 19321-2PenafielNo pick
- 12 Sept · 11:00Portimonense0-2TondelaNo pick
- 11 Sept · 20:45Academica0-3Benfica BNo pick
- 11 Sept · 18:45Torreense0-0LeixoesNo pick
- 7 Sept · 18:00Lusitânia Lourosa2-1AVSNo pick
About Segunda Liga
Segunda Liga is the second tier of Portugal football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.32 goals per game over 53 matches: both teams scored in 42%, 43% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 42% with 23% drawn. Lusitânia Lourosa lead the table on 16 points from 6 games.
How the model handles Segunda Liga
Every Segunda Liga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Predictions on finished matches have only been frozen at kickoff since 23 Jul, and there are not yet enough settled Segunda Liga tips to publish a per-league record — it fills in as the season goes. The site-wide record is on the track record page. Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Segunda Liga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Segunda Liga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Segunda Liga market is the model most reliable in?
- There are not yet enough settled Segunda Liga tips since 23 Jul to say. The record table on this page fills in as the season goes; until then the site-wide track record is the best guide to how each market behaves.
- How far ahead are Segunda Liga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Segunda Liga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.