Primeira Liga predictions
Portugal · top flight · 18 teams · table updated 24 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Primeira Liga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Primeira Liga in the Bet Finder.
This week's Primeira Liga fixtures
- 9 Oct · 18:45MoreirensevGIL VicenteNo pick yet
- 9 Oct · 20:15SC BragavSporting CPNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:30Casa PiavSanta ClaraNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 18:00MaritimovFC PortoNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 20:30Academico ViseuvEstorilNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 15:30Rio AvevNacionalNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 18:00BenficavVitória SCNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 20:30AroucavEstrelaNo pick yet
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | +15 | 21 | |
| 2 |  Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 16 | |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 15 | |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 15 | |
| 5 |  Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 11 | |
| 6 |  SC Braga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 11 | |
| 7 |  Academico Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 11 | |
| 8 |  Estrela | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 10 | |
| 9 |  GIL Vicente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 8 | |
| 10 |  Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 | |
| 11 |  Maritimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 | |
| 12 |  Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 8 | |
| 13 |  Famalicao | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 7 | |
| 14 |  Vitória SC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 | |
| 15 |  Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 | |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4 | |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 4 | |
| 18 |  Estoril | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 2 |
- Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
- Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
- Liga Portugal (Relegation)
- Relegation - Liga Portugal 2
Official Primeira Liga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-24.
This season in numbers
The model's Primeira Liga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 12 | 74.2% | 83.3% | +9.1 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 13 | 87.4% | 100.0% | +12.6 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 13 | 61.2% | 61.5% | +0.3 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 13 | 80.0% | 92.3% | +12.3 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 15 | 63.1% | 73.3% | +10.2 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Primeira Liga matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Primeira Liga results
- 20 Sept · 20:30FC Porto3-1BenficaNo pick
- 20 Sept · 18:00Santa Clara0-0SC BragaAway or Draw✓
- 20 Sept · 18:00Estoril1-2Casa PiaNo pick
- 20 Sept · 15:30Vitória SC1-1MoreirenseNo pick
- 20 Sept · 15:30Estrela0-2Academico ViseuNo pick
- 19 Sept · 20:30Sporting CP2-2AroucaHome or Draw✓
- 19 Sept · 18:00Alverca1-0Rio AveNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:30Nacional0-4FamalicaoNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:30GIL Vicente1-1MaritimoNo pick
- 14 Sept · 20:45SC Braga1-0EstorilHome or Draw✓
About Primeira Liga
Primeira Liga is the top flight of Portugal football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.74 goals per game over 62 matches: both teams scored in 50%, 55% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 39% with 29% drawn. FC Porto lead the table on 21 points from 7 games.
How the model handles Primeira Liga
Every Primeira Liga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 66 Primeira Liga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 72.9% on average and landing 81.8%. Its best-calibrated Primeira Liga market so far is away win (61.2% claimed against 61.5% hit over 13 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Primeira Liga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Primeira Liga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Primeira Liga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Primeira Liga tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is away win: 61.2% claimed against 61.5% hit over 13 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Primeira Liga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Primeira Liga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.