I Liga predictions
Poland · second tier · 18 teams · table updated 22 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every I Liga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter I Liga in the Bet Finder.
This week's I Liga fixtures
- 9 Oct · 19:30PodbeskidzievPogoń SiedlceNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 14:30Arka GdyniavPolonia WarszawaNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 14:30Chrobry GłogówvPogoń Grod. MazowieckiNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 14:30Unia SkierniewicevNiecieczaNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 11:00Stal MielecvWarta PoznańNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 13:30ŁKS ŁódźvRuch ChorzówNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 16:00Puszcza NiepołomicevPolonia BytomNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 19:15Odra OpolevMiedz LegnicaNo pick yet
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 18 | |
| 2 |  Nieciecza | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 16 | |
| 3 |  Warta Poznań | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 15 | |
| 4 |  ŁKS Łódź | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 15 | |
| 5 |  Miedz Legnica | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 14 | |
| 6 |  Polonia Warszawa | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 14 | |
| 7 |  Stal Rzeszów | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 14 | |
| 8 |  Lechia Gdansk | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 13 | |
| 9 |  Chrobry Głogów | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 12 | |
| 10 |  Pogoń Siedlce | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 12 | |
| 11 |  Ruch Chorzów | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 12 | |
| 12 |  Arka Gdynia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 | |
| 13 |  Unia Skierniewice | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 | |
| 14 |  Odra Opole | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 9 | |
| 15 |  Polonia Bytom | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 9 | |
| 16 |  Stal Mielec | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 9 | |
| 17 |  Podbeskidzie | 9 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 | |
| 18 |  Puszcza Niepołomice | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 6 |
- Promotion
- Promotion Play-offs
- Relegation
Official I Liga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-22.
This season in numbers
The model's I Liga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 1 | 58.2% | 100.0% | +41.8 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away win≥ 50% | 1 | 53.5% | 0.0% | -53.5 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 77.7% | 0.0% | -77.7 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 6 | 58.4% | 33.3% | -25.1 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled I Liga matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent I Liga results
- 20 Sept · 16:30Podbeskidzie1-1Unia SkierniewiceNo pick
- 20 Sept · 13:30Pogoń Siedlce2-1Arka GdyniaAway or Draw✗
- 19 Sept · 18:00Miedz Legnica2-3Stal RzeszówNo pick
- 19 Sept · 14:30Nieciecza1-0Odra OpoleNo pick
- 19 Sept · 14:30Polonia Warszawa2-0Chrobry GłogówDraw✗
- 19 Sept · 14:30Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki2-0ŁKS ŁódźNo pick
- 19 Sept · 11:30Lechia Gdansk7-1Stal MielecNo pick
- 18 Sept · 19:45Polonia Bytom0-0Ruch ChorzówNo pick
- 18 Sept · 17:00Warta Poznań3-2Puszcza NiepołomiceDraw✗
- 14 Sept · 18:00Stal Mielec1-2NiecieczaNo pick
About I Liga
I Liga is the second tier of Poland football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.75 goals per game over 80 matches: both teams scored in 56%, 50% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 43% with 29% drawn. Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki lead the table on 18 points from 9 games.
How the model handles I Liga
Every I Liga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 9 I Liga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 60.0% on average and landing 33.3%. Its best-calibrated I Liga market so far is over 2.5 (58.4% claimed against 33.3% hit over 6 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these I Liga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the I Liga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which I Liga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled I Liga tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 58.4% claimed against 33.3% hit over 6 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are I Liga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter I Liga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.