Ekstraklasa predictions
Poland · top flight · 18 teams · table updated 22 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Ekstraklasa match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Ekstraklasa in the Bet Finder.
This week's Ekstraklasa fixtures
- 9 Oct · 17:00Wieczysta KrakówvWisla PlockNo pick yet
- 9 Oct · 19:30Raków CzęstochowavGKS KatowiceNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 13:45Cracovia KrakowvZaglebie LubinNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 16:30Slask WroclawvLech PoznanNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 19:15JagielloniavGornik ZabrzeNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 13:45Piast GliwicevWidzew ŁódźNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 16:30Pogon SzczecinvKorona KielceNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 19:15Legia WarszawavWisla KrakowNo pick yet
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gornik Zabrze | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 22 | |
| 2 |  Legia Warszawa | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 19 | |
| 3 |  Lech Poznan | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 19 | |
| 4 |  Wisla Krakow | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 17 | |
| 5 |  Pogon Szczecin | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 15 | |
| 6 |  Korona Kielce | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 15 | |
| 7 |  Zaglebie Lubin | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 15 | |
| 8 |  Piast Gliwice | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 13 | |
| 9 |  GKS Katowice | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 12 | |
| 10 |  Jagiellonia | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 12 | |
| 11 |  Wisla Plock | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 | |
| 12 |  Widzew Łódź | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 9 | |
| 13 |  Cracovia Krakow | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 | |
| 14 |  Radomiak Radom | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 8 | |
| 15 |  Slask Wroclaw | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 6 | |
| 16 |  Motor Lublin | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 6 | |
| 17 |  Wieczysta Kraków | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 | |
| 18 |  Raków Częstochowa | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 3 |
- Qualifying
- EL Qualification
- Play-offs
- Relegation
Official Ekstraklasa table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-22.
This season in numbers
The model's Ekstraklasa record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 10 | 62.8% | 60.0% | -2.8 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 11 | 82.8% | 90.9% | +8.1 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 9 | 60.8% | 55.6% | -5.2 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Ekstraklasa matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Ekstraklasa results
- 20 Sept · 19:15Lech Poznan5-1Radomiak RadomHome or Draw✓
- 20 Sept · 16:30Jagiellonia1-3Legia WarszawaNo pick
- 20 Sept · 13:45Zaglebie Lubin0-2Wisla PlockDraw✗
- 20 Sept · 11:15Piast Gliwice1-2Pogon SzczecinNo pick
- 19 Sept · 19:15Motor Lublin0-0Gornik ZabrzeNo pick
- 19 Sept · 16:30GKS Katowice3-2Cracovia KrakowNo pick
- 19 Sept · 13:45Korona Kielce3-2Raków CzęstochowaNo pick
- 18 Sept · 19:30Wisla Krakow2-1Slask WroclawNo pick
- 18 Sept · 17:30Widzew Łódź2-2Wieczysta KrakówNo pick
- 15 Sept · 19:30Korona Kielce0-2Gornik ZabrzeNo pick
About Ekstraklasa
Ekstraklasa is the top flight of Poland football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.94 goals per game over 78 matches: both teams scored in 65%, 60% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 45% with 24% drawn. Gornik Zabrze lead the table on 22 points from 9 games.
How the model handles Ekstraklasa
Every Ekstraklasa fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 30 Ekstraklasa tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 69.5% on average and landing 70.0%. Its best-calibrated Ekstraklasa market so far is home win (62.8% claimed against 60.0% hit over 10 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Ekstraklasa predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Ekstraklasa table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Ekstraklasa market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Ekstraklasa tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 62.8% claimed against 60.0% hit over 10 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Ekstraklasa fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Ekstraklasa by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.