Eliteserien predictions
Norway · top flight · 16 teams · table updated 24 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Eliteserien match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Eliteserien in the Bet Finder.
This week's Eliteserien fixtures
- 9 Oct · 18:00BrannvVikingNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00Bodo/GlimtvKristiansund BKNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 17:00RosenborgvSandefjordNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 13:30FredrikstadvTromsoNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 16:00AalesundvSarpsborg 08 FFNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 16:00StartvHam-KamNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 18:15LillestromvMoldeNo pick yet
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 54 | 20 | +34 | 50 | |
| 2 |  Bodo/Glimt | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 53 | 19 | +34 | 50 | |
| 3 |  Tromso | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 29 | +11 | 38 | |
| 4 |  Molde | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 44 | 32 | +12 | 36 | |
| 5 |  Rosenborg | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 39 | 30 | +9 | 33 | |
| 6 |  Lillestrom | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 32 | |
| 7 |  Brann | 21 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 39 | 32 | +7 | 29 | |
| 8 |  Fredrikstad | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 32 | -7 | 28 | |
| 9 |  Sarpsborg 08 FF | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 25 | |
| 10 |  KFUM Oslo | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 25 | |
| 11 |  Sandefjord | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 23 | |
| 12 |  Valerenga | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 23 | |
| 13 |  Ham-Kam | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 23 | |
| 14 |  Aalesund | 21 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 21 | |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 21 | 40 | -19 | 19 | |
| 16 |  Start | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 22 | 44 | -22 | 16 |
- Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
- Eliteserien (Relegation)
- Relegation - OBOS-ligaen
Official Eliteserien table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-24.
This season in numbers
The model's Eliteserien record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 15 | 66.2% | 73.3% | +7.1 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 14 | 83.9% | 71.4% | -12.5 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 11 | 55.0% | 45.5% | -9.5 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 11 | 76.4% | 72.7% | -3.7 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 39 | 62.8% | 76.9% | +14.1 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 3 | 64.6% | 33.3% | -31.3 |
Settled Eliteserien matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Eliteserien results
- 20 Sept · 18:15Brann2-1Bodo/GlimtOver 2.5✓
- 20 Sept · 16:00Viking3-0LillestromOver 2.5✓
- 20 Sept · 16:00Tromso3-2Ham-KamNo pick
- 20 Sept · 16:00Sandefjord3-0StartOver 2.5✓
- 20 Sept · 13:30Valerenga1-1FredrikstadOver 2.5✗
- 19 Sept · 17:00Molde1-2AalesundHome or Draw✗
- 19 Sept · 15:00Kristiansund BK1-3RosenborgOver 2.5✓
- 18 Sept · 18:00Sarpsborg 08 FF1-3KFUM OsloOver 2.5✓
- 14 Sept · 18:00Bodo/Glimt3-2SandefjordHome or Draw✓
- 13 Sept · 18:15Fredrikstad1-1Sarpsborg 08 FFOver 2.5✗
About Eliteserien
Eliteserien is the top flight of Norway football with 16 teams. The 2026 season has produced 3.16 goals per game over 168 matches: both teams scored in 58%, 62% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 51% with 20% drawn. Viking lead the table on 50 points from 21 games.
How the model handles Eliteserien
Every Eliteserien fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 93 Eliteserien tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 67.3% on average and landing 69.9%. Its best-calibrated Eliteserien market so far is away or draw (76.4% claimed against 72.7% hit over 11 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Eliteserien predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Eliteserien table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Eliteserien market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Eliteserien tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is away or draw: 76.4% claimed against 72.7% hit over 11 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Eliteserien fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Eliteserien by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.