1. Division predictions
Norway · second tier · 16 teams · table updated 3 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every 1. Division match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter 1. Division in the Bet Finder.
This week's 1. Division fixtures
- 4 Oct · 13:30BrynevLynBTTSModerate
- 5 Oct · 18:00MossvKongsvingerBTTSModerate
- 11 Oct · 16:00AsanevSogndalNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 16:00EgersundvhoddNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 16:00KongsvingervRanheimNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 16:00LynvStromsgodsetNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 16:00ODD BallklubbvBryneNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 16:00RaufossvMossNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 16:00Sandnes ULFvHaugesundNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 16:00StabaekvStrommenNo pick yet
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Haugesund | 23 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 72 | 39 | +33 | 52 | |
| 2 |  Kongsvinger | 23 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 68 | 35 | +33 | 50 | |
| 3 |  Stromsgodset | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 60 | 31 | +29 | 48 | |
| 4 |  Stabaek | 23 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 57 | 29 | +28 | 45 | |
| 5 |  ODD Ballklubb | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 47 | 36 | +11 | 36 | |
| 6 |  Bryne | 23 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 32 | 31 | +1 | 35 | |
| 7 |  hodd | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 34 | |
| 8 |  Ranheim | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 61 | 58 | +3 | 31 | |
| 9 |  Egersund | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 29 | |
| 10 |  Lyn | 23 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 28 | |
| 11 |  Moss | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 25 | |
| 12 |  Strommen | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 35 | 52 | -17 | 25 | |
| 13 |  Sandnes ULF | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 24 | |
| 14 |  Sogndal | 23 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 38 | 53 | -15 | 23 | |
| 15 |  Asane | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 52 | -18 | 20 | |
| 16 |  Raufoss | 23 | 6 | 1 | 16 | 26 | 61 | -35 | 19 |
- Promotion
- Promotion Play-offs
- Relegation Playoffs
- Relegation
Official 1. Division table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-03.
This season in numbers
The model's 1. Division record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 6 | 63.3% | 66.7% | +3.4 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 5 | 82.3% | 80.0% | -2.3 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 34 | 61.6% | 73.5% | +11.9 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 3 | 66.3% | 66.7% | +0.4 |
Settled 1. Division matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent 1. Division results
- 2 Oct · 18:00Ranheim5-0EgersundBTTS✗
- 20 Sept · 16:00Stabaek2-1SogndalOver 2.5✓
- 20 Sept · 16:00Sandnes ULF1-2MossOver 2.5✓
- 20 Sept · 16:00Raufoss0-2StromsgodsetNo pick
- 20 Sept · 16:00ODD Ballklubb5-1EgersundOver 2.5✓
- 20 Sept · 16:00Lyn1-4RanheimOver 2.5✓
- 20 Sept · 16:00Kongsvinger5-1hoddHome or Draw✓
- 20 Sept · 16:00Haugesund4-2StrommenNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:00Asane0-4BryneOver 2.5✓
- 13 Sept · 16:00Stromsgodset4-1Sandnes ULFNo pick
About 1. Division
1. Division is the second tier of Norway football with 16 teams. The 2026 season has produced 3.85 goals per game over 185 matches: both teams scored in 64%, 72% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 50% with 17% drawn. Haugesund lead the table on 52 points from 23 games.
How the model handles 1. Division
Every 1. Division fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 48 1. Division tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 64.3% on average and landing 72.9%. Its best-calibrated 1. Division market so far is home or draw (82.3% claimed against 80.0% hit over 5 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these 1. Division predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the 1. Division table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which 1. Division market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled 1. Division tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 82.3% claimed against 80.0% hit over 5 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are 1. Division fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter 1. Division by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.