Premiership predictions
Northern Ireland · top flight · 12 teams · table updated 29 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Premiership match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Premiership in the Bet Finder.
This week's Premiership fixtures
- 4 Oct · 15:00BangorvColeraine FCOver 2.5Moderate
- 9 Oct · 19:45PortadownvGlentoranNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00Coleraine FCvCliftonville FCNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00Crusaders FCvLarneNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00Dungannon SwiftsvCarrick RangersNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00Limavady UnitedvBallymena UnitedNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00LinfieldvBangorNo pick yet
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Coleraine FC | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 22 | |
| 2 |  Linfield | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 22 | |
| 3 |  Larne | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 16 | |
| 4 |  Crusaders FC | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 | |
| 5 |  Glentoran | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 13 | |
| 6 |  Dungannon Swifts | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 13 | |
| 7 |  Cliftonville FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 | |
| 8 |  Carrick Rangers | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 | |
| 9 |  Ballymena United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 9 | |
| 10 |  Limavady United | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 9 | |
| 11 |  Bangor | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 5 | |
| 12 |  Portadown | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 1 |
- Promotion - NIFL Premiership (Championship Group)
- NIFL Premiership (Relegation Group)
Official Premiership table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-29.
This season in numbers
The model's Premiership record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 10 | 62.6% | 60.0% | -2.6 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 10 | 81.9% | 70.0% | -11.9 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 5 | 56.2% | 80.0% | +23.8 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 5 | 77.2% | 100.0% | +22.8 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 21 | 61.8% | 66.7% | +4.9 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 2 | 65.5% | 50.0% | -15.5 |
Settled Premiership matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Premiership results
- 26 Sept · 15:00Limavady United1-0Cliftonville FCNo pick
- 26 Sept · 15:00Glentoran2-0Carrick RangersHome Win✓
- 26 Sept · 15:00Crusaders FC2-1BangorBTTS✓
- 26 Sept · 15:00Ballymena United2-0PortadownNo pick
- 25 Sept · 19:45Coleraine FC1-3LinfieldNo pick
- 19 Sept · 18:00Coleraine FC1-0Limavady UnitedNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:00Linfield1-0Crusaders FCOver 2.5✗
- 19 Sept · 15:00Dungannon Swifts1-1Ballymena UnitedNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:00Cliftonville FC1-2GlentoranOver 2.5✓
- 19 Sept · 15:00Carrick Rangers2-5LarneAway or Draw✓
About Premiership
Premiership is the top flight of Northern Ireland football with 12 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.65 goals per game over 51 matches: both teams scored in 49%, 51% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 47% with 12% drawn. Coleraine FC lead the table on 22 points from 9 games.
How the model handles Premiership
Every Premiership fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 53 Premiership tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 66.8% on average and landing 69.8%. Its best-calibrated Premiership market so far is home win (62.6% claimed against 60.0% hit over 10 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Premiership predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Premiership table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Premiership market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Premiership tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 62.6% claimed against 60.0% hit over 10 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Premiership fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Premiership by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.