Championship predictions
Northern Ireland · second tier · 16 teams · table updated 1 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Championship match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Championship in the Bet Finder.
This week's Championship fixtures
- 9 Oct · 19:45Newry City AFCvDundelaNo pick yet
- 9 Oct · 19:45RathfrilandvArmagh CityNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00InstitutevH&W WeldersNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00LoughgallvMoyola ParkNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00Newington YouthvArdsNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00Queen's UniversityvBallinamallard UnitedNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00Warrenpoint TownvStrabane AthleticNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 17:30Annagh UnitedvGlenavon FCNo pick yet
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Newington Youth | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 11 | +13 | 20 | |
| 2 |  Annagh United | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 20 | |
| 3 |  Glenavon FC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 13 | +9 | 17 | |
| 4 |  Queen's University | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 16 | |
| 5 |  H&W Welders | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 15 | |
| 6 |  Newry City AFC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 15 | |
| 7 |  Warrenpoint Town | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 13 | |
| 8 |  Ballinamallard United | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 13 | |
| 9 |  Institute | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 13 | |
| 10 |  Dundela | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 11 | |
| 11 |  Ards | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 11 | |
| 12 |  Moyola Park | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 11 | |
| 13 |  Loughgall | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 10 | |
| 14 |  Strabane Athletic | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 8 | |
| 15 |  Armagh City | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 4 | |
| 16 |  Rathfriland | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 3 |
- Promotion - NIFL Championship (Promotion Group)
- NIFL Championship (Relegation Group)
Official Championship table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-01.
This season in numbers
The model's Championship record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 10 | 64.4% | 50.0% | -14.4 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 9 | 82.6% | 77.8% | -4.8 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 3 | 52.7% | 33.3% | -19.4 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 2 | 76.7% | 50.0% | -26.7 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 29 | 63.6% | 58.6% | -5.0 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 3 | 67.1% | 66.7% | -0.4 |
Settled Championship matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Championship results
- 2 Oct · 19:45Strabane Athletic0-0Armagh CityOver 2.5✗
- 26 Sept · 15:00Queen's University0-1Moyola ParkOver 2.5✗
- 26 Sept · 15:00Newington Youth4-0Ballinamallard UnitedNo pick
- 26 Sept · 15:00Armagh City0-2DundelaBTTS✗
- 26 Sept · 15:00Ards0-1Strabane AthleticNo pick
- 26 Sept · 15:00Annagh United5-0InstituteNo pick
- 25 Sept · 19:45Rathfriland0-2Warrenpoint TownNo pick
- 25 Sept · 19:45Newry City AFC3-2H&W WeldersAway or Draw✗
- 25 Sept · 19:45Glenavon FC4-1LoughgallNo pick
- 19 Sept · 17:30Rathfriland1-0Queen's UniversityNo pick
About Championship
Championship is the second tier of Northern Ireland football with 16 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.27 goals per game over 73 matches: both teams scored in 59%, 63% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 41% with 23% drawn. Newington Youth lead the table on 20 points from 9 games.
How the model handles Championship
Every Championship fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 56 Championship tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 66.9% on average and landing 58.9%. Its best-calibrated Championship market so far is home or draw (82.6% claimed against 77.8% hit over 9 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Championship predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Championship table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Championship market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Championship tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 82.6% claimed against 77.8% hit over 9 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Championship fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Championship by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.