Liga MX predictions
Mexico · top flight · 18 teams · table updated 1 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Liga MX match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Liga MX in the Bet Finder.
This week's Liga MX fixtures
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Toluca | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 20 | |
| 2 |  Club America | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 20 | |
| 3 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 18 | |
| 4 |  Club Queretaro | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 17 | |
| 5 |  Leon | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 17 | |
| 6 |  Atlas | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 17 | |
| 7 |  Cruz Azul | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 16 | |
| 8 |  Club Tijuana | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 14 | |
| 9 |  Puebla | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 14 | |
| 10 |  Monterrey | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 13 | |
| 11 |  CF Pachuca | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 12 | |
| 12 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 | |
| 13 |  Atletico San Luis | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 12 | |
| 14 |  Atlante FC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 | |
| 15 |  Tigres UANL | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 | |
| 16 |  Santos Laguna | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 | |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 8 | |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 3 |
- Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Official Liga MX table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-01.
This season in numbers
The model's Liga MX record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 16 | 63.1% | 56.3% | -6.8 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 22 | 83.4% | 72.7% | -10.7 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 2 | 56.5% | 100.0% | +43.5 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 2 | 79.1% | 100.0% | +20.9 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 7 | 60.9% | 71.4% | +10.5 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Liga MX matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Liga MX results
- 28 Sept · 4:10Necaxa2-4Club AmericaAway or Draw✓
- 28 Sept · 2:00Leon2-1FC JuarezNo pick
- 27 Sept · 19:00U.N.A.M. - Pumas2-3Atletico San LuisNo pick
- 27 Sept · 4:10Tigres UANL1-0PueblaHome or Draw✓
- 27 Sept · 4:05Santos Laguna1-0CF PachucaNo pick
- 27 Sept · 0:07Guadalajara Chivas0-2Club QueretaroHome or Draw✗
- 26 Sept · 23:50Cruz Azul3-3TolucaNo pick
- 26 Sept · 4:00Club Tijuana2-3AtlasNo pick
- 26 Sept · 2:00Atlante FC4-2MonterreyNo pick
- 21 Sept · 3:10Club Queretaro1-1LeonDraw✓
About Liga MX
Liga MX is the top flight of Mexico football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.93 goals per game over 88 matches: both teams scored in 58%, 53% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 41% with 23% drawn. Toluca lead the table on 20 points from 10 games.
How the model handles Liga MX
Every Liga MX fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 49 Liga MX tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 72.3% on average and landing 69.4%. Its best-calibrated Liga MX market so far is home win (63.1% claimed against 56.3% hit over 16 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Liga MX predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Liga MX table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Liga MX market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Liga MX tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 63.1% claimed against 56.3% hit over 16 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Liga MX fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Liga MX by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.