Premier Division predictions
Ireland · top flight · 10 teams · table updated 2 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Premier Division match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Premier Division in the Bet Finder.
This week's Premier Division fixtures
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  St Patrick's Athl. | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 52 | 25 | +27 | 59 | |
| 2 |  Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 59 | |
| 3 |  Bohemians | 31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 55 | 37 | +18 | 56 | |
| 4 |  Derry City | 32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 45 | 42 | +3 | 41 | |
| 5 |  Dundalk | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 41 | |
| 6 |  Shelbourne | 32 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 40 | |
| 7 |  Galway United | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 38 | |
| 8 |  Waterford | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 34 | |
| 9 |  Drogheda United | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 34 | |
| 10 |  Sligo Rovers | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 23 |
- Play-offs
- Qualifying
- Relegation Play-offs
- Relegation
Official Premier Division table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-02.
This season in numbers
The model's Premier Division record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 5 | 60.4% | 20.0% | -40.4 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 9 | 82.2% | 100.0% | +17.8 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 1 | 52.4% | 100.0% | +47.6 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 76.7% | 100.0% | +23.3 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 3 | 60.2% | 66.7% | +6.5 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Premier Division matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Premier Division results
- 2 Oct · 19:45Dundalk1-2BohemiansNo pick
- 25 Sept · 19:45Galway United1-1ShelbourneNo pick
- 19 Sept · 19:45Sligo Rovers0-1St Patrick's Athl.Away or Draw✓
- 18 Sept · 20:00Shamrock Rovers3-2WaterfordOver 2.5✓
- 18 Sept · 20:00Bohemians2-1Drogheda UnitedHome or Draw✓
- 18 Sept · 19:45Dundalk2-3ShelbourneNo pick
- 18 Sept · 19:45Derry City1-0Galway UnitedNo pick
- 14 Sept · 19:45Sligo Rovers1-3Galway UnitedNo pick
- 14 Sept · 19:45Waterford2-2Derry CityOver 2.5✓
- 14 Sept · 19:45Shelbourne1-2Drogheda UnitedNo pick
About Premier Division
Premier Division is the top flight of Ireland football with 10 teams. The 2026 season has produced 2.77 goals per game over 160 matches: both teams scored in 60%, 51% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 38% with 33% drawn. St Patrick's Athl. lead the table on 59 points from 32 games.
How the model handles Premier Division
Every Premier Division fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 19 Premier Division tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 71.1% on average and landing 73.7%. Its best-calibrated Premier Division market so far is home or draw (82.2% claimed against 100.0% hit over 9 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Premier Division predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Premier Division table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Premier Division market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Premier Division tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 82.2% claimed against 100.0% hit over 9 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Premier Division fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Premier Division by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.