First Division predictions
Ireland · second tier · 10 teams · table updated 2 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every First Division match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter First Division in the Bet Finder.
This week's First Division fixtures
First Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cork City | 33 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 70 | 32 | +38 | 71 | |
| 2 |  Bray Wanderers | 33 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 64 | 45 | +19 | 53 | |
| 3 |  UCD | 33 | 14 | 7 | 12 | 57 | 48 | +9 | 49 | |
| 4 |  Longford Town | 33 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 44 | 42 | +2 | 47 | |
| 5 |  Cobh Ramblers | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 42 | 49 | -7 | 46 | |
| 6 |  Kerry | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 40 | 39 | +1 | 45 | |
| 7 |  Athlone Town | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 45 | |
| 8 |  Wexford | 33 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 37 | 48 | -11 | 40 | |
| 9 |  Treaty United | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 36 | |
| 10 |  Finn Harps | 33 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 30 | 66 | -36 | 25 |
Official First Division table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-02.
This season in numbers
The model's First Division record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 5 | 61.0% | 80.0% | +19.0 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 6 | 82.7% | 66.7% | -16.0 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 3 | 53.1% | 33.3% | -19.8 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 3 | 78.6% | 33.3% | -45.3 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 7 | 59.6% | 71.4% | +11.8 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled First Division matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent First Division results
- 2 Oct · 20:15Treaty United0-4UCDNo pick
- 2 Oct · 19:45Wexford3-3Longford TownNo pick
- 2 Oct · 19:45Finn Harps1-2KerryDraw✗
- 2 Oct · 19:45Bray Wanderers1-4Cobh RamblersNo pick
- 2 Oct · 19:45Athlone Town2-1Cork CityNo pick
- 26 Sept · 19:30Longford Town2-1Cork CityAway or Draw✗
- 25 Sept · 19:45UCD1-3Bray WanderersDraw✗
- 25 Sept · 19:45Treaty United2-1Finn HarpsOver 2.5✓
- 25 Sept · 19:45Kerry1-0WexfordNo pick
- 25 Sept · 19:45Cobh Ramblers3-3Athlone TownNo pick
About First Division
First Division is the second tier of Ireland football with 10 teams. The 2026 season has produced 2.81 goals per game over 170 matches: both teams scored in 54%, 55% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 50% with 23% drawn. Cork City lead the table on 71 points from 33 games.
How the model handles First Division
Every First Division fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 24 First Division tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 67.2% on average and landing 62.5%. Its best-calibrated First Division market so far is over 2.5 (59.6% claimed against 71.4% hit over 7 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these First Division predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the First Division table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which First Division market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled First Division tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 59.6% claimed against 71.4% hit over 7 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are First Division fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter First Division by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.