Erovnuli Liga predictions
Georgia · top flight · 10 teams · table updated 24 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Erovnuli Liga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Erovnuli Liga in the Bet Finder.
This week's Erovnuli Liga fixtures
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Dinamo Batumi | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 46 | 36 | +10 | 47 | |
| 2 |  FC Iberia 1999 | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 37 | 28 | +9 | 46 | |
| 3 |  Rustavi | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 32 | 23 | +9 | 46 | |
| 4 |  Dinamo Tbilisi | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 43 | 29 | +14 | 45 | |
| 5 |  Dila | 27 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 38 | 30 | +8 | 40 | |
| 6 |  Torpedo Kutaisi | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 43 | 34 | +9 | 36 | |
| 7 |  Samgurali | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 32 | |
| 8 |  Gagra | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 29 | |
| 9 |  Spaeri | 27 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 25 | |
| 10 |  Meshakhte | 27 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 20 | 44 | -24 | 17 |
- Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
- Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga (Relegation)
- Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2
Official Erovnuli Liga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-24.
This season in numbers
The model's Erovnuli Liga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 5 | 64.3% | 40.0% | -24.3 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 7 | 82.9% | 71.4% | -11.5 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 16 | 60.0% | 62.5% | +2.5 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 1 | 64.6% | 0.0% | -64.6 |
Settled Erovnuli Liga matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Erovnuli Liga results
- 21 Sept · 18:00Spaeri1-4DilaOver 2.5✓
- 21 Sept · 16:00Rustavi0-2FC Iberia 1999No pick
- 20 Sept · 17:00Dinamo Batumi3-2Torpedo KutaisiOver 2.5✓
- 19 Sept · 17:00Samgurali2-3Dinamo TbilisiNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:00Gagra1-1MeshakhteNo pick
- 17 Sept · 17:00FC Iberia 19992-1DilaNo pick
- 14 Sept · 18:00Dinamo Tbilisi4-0GagraHome or Draw✓
- 14 Sept · 16:00Torpedo Kutaisi3-2SamguraliOver 2.5✓
- 14 Sept · 13:00Meshakhte0-1RustaviNo pick
- 13 Sept · 17:00FC Iberia 19991-0SpaeriOver 2.5✗
About Erovnuli Liga
Erovnuli Liga is the top flight of Georgia football with 10 teams. The 2026 season has produced 2.66 goals per game over 134 matches: both teams scored in 58%, 53% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 40% with 29% drawn. Dinamo Batumi lead the table on 47 points from 27 games.
How the model handles Erovnuli Liga
Every Erovnuli Liga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 29 Erovnuli Liga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 66.4% on average and landing 58.6%. Its best-calibrated Erovnuli Liga market so far is over 2.5 (60.0% claimed against 62.5% hit over 16 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Erovnuli Liga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Erovnuli Liga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Erovnuli Liga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Erovnuli Liga tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 60.0% claimed against 62.5% hit over 16 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Erovnuli Liga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Erovnuli Liga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.