Ligue 1 predictions
France · top flight · 18 teams · table updated 22 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Ligue 1 match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Ligue 1 in the Bet Finder.
This week's Ligue 1 fixtures
- 9 Oct · 19:45LensvLyonNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 16:15LillevLe HavreNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 19:45Stade Brestois 29vAngersNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 19:45LorientvParis FCNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 19:45MonacovToulouseNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 19:45Paris Saint GermainvLe MansNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 14:00NicevStrasbourgNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 16:15RennesvAuxerreNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 19:45Estac TroyesvMarseilleNo pick yet
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 13 | |
| 2 |  Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 11 | |
| 3 |  Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 11 | |
| 4 |  Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 10 | |
| 5 |  Rennes | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 | |
| 6 |  Paris Saint Germain | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 8 | |
| 7 |  Angers | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 | |
| 8 |  Strasbourg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 | |
| 9 |  Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 6 | |
| 10 |  Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 6 | |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 | |
| 12 |  Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 | |
| 13 |  Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 | |
| 14 |  Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 | |
| 15 |  Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 4 | |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 4 | |
| 17 |  Marseille | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3 | |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 |
- Champions League league stage
- Qualifying
- Europa League league stage
- Play-offs
- Relegation Playoffs
- Relegation
Official Ligue 1 table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-22.
This season in numbers
The model's Ligue 1 record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 4 | 60.8% | 25.0% | -35.8 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 5 | 82.0% | 40.0% | -42.0 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 5 | 55.5% | 60.0% | +4.5 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 5 | 78.0% | 100.0% | +22.0 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 7 | 60.6% | 71.4% | +10.8 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Ligue 1 matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Ligue 1 results
- 20 Sept · 19:45Marseille1-2Paris Saint GermainAway or Draw✓
- 20 Sept · 16:15Nice2-1LilleNo pick
- 20 Sept · 14:00Auxerre2-1Stade Brestois 29No pick
- 19 Sept · 19:45Toulouse3-2Le HavreNo pick
- 19 Sept · 19:45Lyon4-0RennesNo pick
- 19 Sept · 19:45Le Mans2-1LorientNo pick
- 19 Sept · 19:45Angers2-0Estac TroyesNo pick
- 19 Sept · 16:15Paris FC2-1StrasbourgNo pick
- 18 Sept · 19:45Monaco2-1LensNo pick
- 13 Sept · 19:45Stade Brestois 290-1Paris Saint GermainAway or Draw✓
About Ligue 1
Ligue 1 is the top flight of France football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.84 goals per game over 45 matches: both teams scored in 60%, 60% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 40% with 29% drawn. Monaco lead the table on 13 points from 5 games.
How the model handles Ligue 1
Every Ligue 1 fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 26 Ligue 1 tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 67.1% on average and landing 61.5%. Its best-calibrated Ligue 1 market so far is away win (55.5% claimed against 60.0% hit over 5 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Ligue 1 predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Ligue 1 table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Ligue 1 market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Ligue 1 tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is away win: 55.5% claimed against 60.0% hit over 5 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Ligue 1 fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Ligue 1 by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.