Ykkönen predictions
Finland · second tier · 12 teams · table updated 27 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Ykkönen match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Ykkönen in the Bet Finder.
This week's Ykkönen fixtures
Ykkönen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tampere United | 25 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 58 | 26 | +32 | 50 | |
| 2 |  Rops | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 52 | 37 | +15 | 44 | |
| 3 |  SalPa | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 52 | 45 | +7 | 42 | |
| 4 |  OLS | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 50 | 37 | +13 | 41 | |
| 5 |  VJS | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 44 | 32 | +12 | 40 | |
| 6 |  FC jazz | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 32 | +6 | 39 | |
| 7 |  PKKU | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 45 | 37 | +8 | 38 | |
| 8 |  JJK | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 55 | 53 | +2 | 31 | |
| 9 |  TPV | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 27 | |
| 10 |  Inter Turku II | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 36 | 53 | -17 | 23 | |
| 11 |  KPV-j | 25 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 27 | 75 | -48 | 18 | |
| 12 |  KuPS Akatemia | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 41 | 58 | -17 | 15 |
Official Ykkönen table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-27.
This season in numbers
The model's Ykkönen record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 5 | 61.8% | 100.0% | +38.2 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 3 | 82.3% | 100.0% | +17.7 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 29 | 62.1% | 72.4% | +10.3 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 4 | 64.3% | 50.0% | -14.3 |
Settled Ykkönen matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Ykkönen results
- 26 Sept · 16:15Rops3-1SalPaNo pick
- 26 Sept · 15:00VJS2-0KPV-jOver 2.5✗
- 26 Sept · 14:00TPV1-3FC jazzOver 2.5✓
- 26 Sept · 12:30OLS3-0PKKUOver 2.5✓
- 25 Sept · 17:00Tampere United4-0JJKNo pick
- 20 Sept · 16:00Inter Turku II3-0TPVNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:00JJK1-3OLSNo pick
- 19 Sept · 14:00SalPa6-4Tampere UnitedNo pick
- 19 Sept · 14:00PKKU3-1RopsBTTS✓
- 19 Sept · 13:00FC jazz0-2VJSNo pick
About Ykkönen
Ykkönen is the second tier of Finland football with 12 teams. The 2026 season has produced 3.58 goals per game over 149 matches: both teams scored in 61%, 66% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 43% with 26% drawn. Tampere United lead the table on 50 points from 25 games.
How the model handles Ykkönen
Every Ykkönen fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 41 Ykkönen tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 63.8% on average and landing 75.6%. Its best-calibrated Ykkönen market so far is over 2.5 (62.1% claimed against 72.4% hit over 29 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Ykkönen predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Ykkönen table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Ykkönen market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Ykkönen tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 62.1% claimed against 72.4% hit over 29 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Ykkönen fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Ykkönen by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.