Veikkausliiga predictions
Finland · top flight · table updated 22 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Veikkausliiga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Veikkausliiga in the Bet Finder.
This week's Veikkausliiga fixtures
Veikkausliiga table
Veikkausliiga
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  KuPS | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 38 | 23 | +15 | 43 | |
| 2 |  Inter Turku | 22 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 29 | 16 | +13 | 42 | |
| 3 |  HJK Helsinki | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 37 | |
| 4 |  Gnistan | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 36 | 29 | +7 | 36 | |
| 5 |  AC Oulu | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 34 | |
| 6 |  VPS | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 33 | |
| 7 |  Lahti | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 19 | +7 | 32 | |
| 8 |  Turku PS | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 28 | 23 | +5 | 31 | |
| 9 |  Ilves | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 25 | |
| 10 |  SJK | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 19 | |
| 11 |  FF Jaro | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 15 | |
| 12 |  Mariehamn | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 17 | 43 | -26 | 14 |
Champion Additional
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KuPS | 25 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 41 | 24 | +17 | 48 | |
| 2 | Inter Turku | 25 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 32 | 18 | +14 | 48 | |
| 3 | HJK Helsinki | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 29 | +10 | 42 | |
| 4 | Gnistan | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 40 | 32 | +8 | 41 | |
| 5 | VPS | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 36 | |
| 6 | AC Oulu | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 34 |
Relegation Play-Off
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lahti | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 30 | 24 | +6 | 36 | |
| 2 | Ilves | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 42 | 38 | +4 | 34 | |
| 3 | Turku PS | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 28 | 27 | +1 | 32 | |
| 4 | SJK | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 24 | |
| 5 | Mariehamn | 25 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 20 | 47 | -27 | 17 | |
| 6 | FF Jaro | 25 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 20 | 48 | -28 | 17 |
- Play-offs
- Relegation Play-offs
- Relegation
Official Veikkausliiga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-22.
This season in numbers
The model's Veikkausliiga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 8 | 66.0% | 50.0% | -16.0 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 8 | 83.7% | 75.0% | -8.7 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 1 | 50.8% | 100.0% | +49.2 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 76.1% | 100.0% | +23.9 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 16 | 63.2% | 50.0% | -13.2 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 2 | 64.6% | 50.0% | -14.6 |
Settled Veikkausliiga matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Veikkausliiga results
- 19 Sept · 15:00VPS0-2KuPSNo pick
- 19 Sept · 13:00Turku PS0-3IlvesOver 2.5✓
- 18 Sept · 17:00Gnistan1-1HJK HelsinkiNo pick
- 18 Sept · 17:00AC Oulu0-1Inter TurkuNo pick
- 18 Sept · 16:00SJK2-1MariehamnOver 2.5✓
- 18 Sept · 16:00Lahti1-1FF JaroNo pick
- 14 Sept · 16:00Inter Turku1-0VPSNo pick
- 13 Sept · 13:00KuPS0-0HJK HelsinkiNo pick
- 12 Sept · 17:00AC Oulu1-2GnistanNo pick
- 12 Sept · 17:00FF Jaro1-1SJKOver 2.5✗
About Veikkausliiga
Veikkausliiga is the top flight of Finland football played across 3 groups. The 2026 season has produced 2.51 goals per game over 150 matches: both teams scored in 49%, 45% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 45% with 27% drawn. The table is published as Veikkausliiga, Champion Additional, Relegation Play-Off.
How the model handles Veikkausliiga
Every Veikkausliiga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 36 Veikkausliiga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 68.5% on average and landing 58.3%. Its best-calibrated Veikkausliiga market so far is home or draw (83.7% claimed against 75.0% hit over 8 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Veikkausliiga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Veikkausliiga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Veikkausliiga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Veikkausliiga tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 83.7% claimed against 75.0% hit over 8 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Veikkausliiga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Veikkausliiga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.