Superliga predictions
Denmark · top flight · 12 teams · table updated 22 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Superliga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Superliga in the Bet Finder.
This week's Superliga fixtures
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Copenhagen | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 24 | |
| 2 |  FC Midtjylland | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 19 | |
| 3 |  Viborg | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 17 | |
| 4 |  FC Nordsjaelland | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 17 | |
| 5 |  Brondby | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 13 | |
| 6 |  AC Horsens | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 11 | |
| 7 |  Silkeborg | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 10 | |
| 8 |  Randers FC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 | |
| 9 |  Odense | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 9 | |
| 10 |  Lyngby | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 7 | |
| 11 |  Aarhus | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 | |
| 12 |  Sonderjyske | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 5 |
- Play-offs
- Relegation Playoffs
Official Superliga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-22.
This season in numbers
The model's Superliga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 6 | 60.1% | 100.0% | +39.9 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 4 | 81.7% | 100.0% | +18.3 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 10 | 54.9% | 60.0% | +5.1 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 10 | 78.2% | 90.0% | +11.8 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 12 | 59.6% | 41.7% | -17.9 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Superliga matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Superliga results
- 20 Sept · 17:00Viborg4-1FC NordsjaellandNo pick
- 20 Sept · 15:00AC Horsens2-2AarhusNo pick
- 20 Sept · 13:00Sonderjyske4-2Randers FCNo pick
- 20 Sept · 13:00Brondby0-1FC CopenhagenAway or Draw✓
- 19 Sept · 17:00Odense1-1FC MidtjyllandAway or Draw✓
- 18 Sept · 18:00Lyngby0-4SilkeborgNo pick
- 14 Sept · 18:00FC Midtjylland4-1BrondbyOver 2.5✓
- 13 Sept · 17:00FC Nordsjaelland2-0AarhusNo pick
- 13 Sept · 15:00Randers FC1-2OdenseNo pick
- 13 Sept · 13:00Silkeborg1-1ViborgNo pick
About Superliga
Superliga is the top flight of Denmark football with 12 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.96 goals per game over 54 matches: both teams scored in 59%, 54% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 44% with 28% drawn. FC Copenhagen lead the table on 24 points from 9 games.
How the model handles Superliga
Every Superliga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 42 Superliga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 65.1% on average and landing 71.4%. Its best-calibrated Superliga market so far is away win (54.9% claimed against 60.0% hit over 10 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Superliga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Superliga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Superliga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Superliga tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is away win: 54.9% claimed against 60.0% hit over 10 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Superliga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Superliga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.