HNL predictions
Croatia · top flight · 10 teams · table updated 24 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every HNL match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter HNL in the Bet Finder.
This week's HNL fixtures
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 16 | |
| 2 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 16 | |
| 3 |  NK Osijek | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 16 | |
| 4 |  NK Varazdin | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 15 | |
| 5 |  HNK Rijeka | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 14 | |
| 6 |  Istra 1961 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 9 | |
| 7 |  NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 7 | |
| 8 |  NK Slaven Belupo | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 7 | |
| 9 |  HNK Gorica | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 5 | |
| 10 |  Rudes | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 24 | -14 | 4 |
- Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
- Relegation - Prva NL
Official HNL table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-24.
This season in numbers
The model's HNL record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 11 | 67.8% | 81.8% | +14.0 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 13 | 85.6% | 100.0% | +14.4 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 3 | 54.9% | 33.3% | -21.6 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 3 | 77.5% | 66.7% | -10.8 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 7 | 61.1% | 42.9% | -18.2 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled HNL matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent HNL results
- 20 Sept · 19:00Dinamo Zagreb3-2NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHome or Draw✓
- 20 Sept · 16:00HNK Rijeka3-0HNK Hajduk SplitNo pick
- 19 Sept · 19:00Istra 19610-1HNK GoricaNo pick
- 19 Sept · 16:00NK Varazdin0-0NK OsijekNo pick
- 18 Sept · 19:00Rudes2-2NK Slaven BelupoNo pick
- 14 Sept · 17:00HNK Gorica2-2NK VarazdinNo pick
- 13 Sept · 19:00HNK Hajduk Split1-0NK Slaven BelupoHome or Draw✓
- 13 Sept · 16:00Istra 19613-2RudesNo pick
- 12 Sept · 19:00NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1-1HNK RijekaNo pick
- 12 Sept · 16:00NK Osijek4-2Dinamo ZagrebAway or Draw✗
About HNL
HNL is the top flight of Croatia football with 10 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.15 goals per game over 39 matches: both teams scored in 51%, 64% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 62% with 21% drawn. Dinamo Zagreb lead the table on 16 points from 7 games.
How the model handles HNL
Every HNL fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 37 HNL tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 72.5% on average and landing 75.7%. Its best-calibrated HNL market so far is home win (67.8% claimed against 81.8% hit over 11 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these HNL predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the HNL table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which HNL market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled HNL tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 67.8% claimed against 81.8% hit over 11 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are HNL fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter HNL by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.