First NL predictions
Croatia · second tier · 16 teams · table updated 1 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every First NL match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter First NL in the Bet Finder.
This week's First NL fixtures
- 9 Oct · 14:00SesvetevJadran LPNo pick yet
- 9 Oct · 14:30OpatijavKustosijaNo pick yet
- 9 Oct · 14:30Mladost ŽdralovivHNK CibaliaNo pick yet
- 9 Oct · 17:00Karlovac 1919vBsk Bijelo BrdoNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 11:00Orijent 1919vDubrava ZagrebNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 14:30VukovarvHrvaceNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 11:45DugopoljevCroatia ZmijavciNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 14:30Segesta SisakvDinamo Zagreb U21No pick yet
First NL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Jadran LP | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 14 | |
| 2 |  Croatia Zmijavci | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 13 | |
| 3 |  HNK Cibalia | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 13 | |
| 4 |  Bsk Bijelo Brdo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 13 | |
| 5 |  Segesta Sisak | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 11 | |
| 6 |  Mladost Ždralovi | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 11 | |
| 7 |  Sesvete | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 9 | |
| 8 |  Dinamo Zagreb U21 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 | |
| 9 |  Dugopolje | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 9 | |
| 10 |  Dubrava Zagreb | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 | |
| 11 |  Karlovac 1919 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 8 | |
| 12 |  Orijent 1919 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 8 | |
| 13 |  Vukovar | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 8 | |
| 14 |  Opatija | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 7 | |
| 15 |  Hrvace | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 | |
| 16 |  Kustosija | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 6 |
- Promotion - HNL
- Relegation
Official First NL table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-01.
This season in numbers
The model's First NL record
Not enough settled First NL tips since 23 Jul to publish a record yet — it fills in as the season goes. Site-wide numbers are on the track record page.
Recent First NL results
- 27 Sept · 17:30HNK Cibalia1-0DugopoljeNo pick
- 27 Sept · 15:00Opatija1-0VukovarNo pick
- 27 Sept · 15:00Croatia Zmijavci2-0SesveteNo pick
- 27 Sept · 13:30Segesta Sisak1-1Karlovac 1919No pick
- 26 Sept · 15:00Jadran LP1-0KustosijaNo pick
- 26 Sept · 15:00Hrvace3-0Orijent 1919No pick
- 26 Sept · 15:00Dubrava Zagreb0-1Bsk Bijelo BrdoNo pick
- 25 Sept · 14:00Dinamo Zagreb U211-0Mladost ŽdraloviNo pick
- 20 Sept · 17:30Karlovac 19190-1Dubrava ZagrebNo pick
- 20 Sept · 13:00Kustosija1-0Croatia ZmijavciNo pick
About First NL
First NL is the second tier of Croatia football with 16 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.34 goals per game over 56 matches: both teams scored in 50%, 45% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 48% with 25% drawn. Jadran LP lead the table on 14 points from 7 games.
How the model handles First NL
Every First NL fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Predictions on finished matches have only been frozen at kickoff since 23 Jul, and there are not yet enough settled First NL tips to publish a per-league record — it fills in as the season goes. The site-wide record is on the track record page. Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these First NL predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the First NL table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which First NL market is the model most reliable in?
- There are not yet enough settled First NL tips since 23 Jul to say. The record table on this page fills in as the season goes; until then the site-wide track record is the best guide to how each market behaves.
- How far ahead are First NL fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter First NL by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.