Primera División predictions
Costa Rica · top flight · 10 teams · table updated 24 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Primera División match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Primera División in the Bet Finder.
This week's Primera División fixtures
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportivo Saprissa | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 21 | |
| 2 |  CS Cartagines | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 18 | |
| 3 |  Sporting San Jose | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 17 | |
| 4 |  San Carlos | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 15 | |
| 5 |  LD Alajuelense | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 14 | |
| 6 |  Inter San Carlos | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 14 | |
| 7 |  Puntarenas FC | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 11 | |
| 8 |  Perez Zeledon | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 8 | |
| 9 |  CS Herediano | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 7 | |
| 10 |  Escorpiones Belén | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 4 |
- Promotion - Primera Division (Apertura - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Official Primera División table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-24.
This season in numbers
The model's Primera División record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 10 | 65.9% | 60.0% | -5.9 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 10 | 84.6% | 70.0% | -14.6 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 7 | 60.8% | 57.1% | -3.7 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Primera División matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Primera División results
- 21 Sept · 2:00San Carlos1-0CS CartaginesNo pick
- 21 Sept · 0:00LD Alajuelense5-0Inter San CarlosNo pick
- 20 Sept · 3:00Deportivo Saprissa2-0CS HeredianoHome Win✓
- 20 Sept · 0:00Puntarenas FC1-0Escorpiones BelénOver 2.5✗
- 19 Sept · 3:00Perez Zeledon1-2Sporting San JoseNo pick
- 14 Sept · 1:00CS Cartagines3-1LD AlajuelenseNo pick
- 13 Sept · 23:00Sporting San Jose4-2Deportivo SaprissaNo pick
- 13 Sept · 3:00Escorpiones Belén0-2CS HeredianoOver 2.5✗
- 13 Sept · 0:00Inter San Carlos1-1Puntarenas FCNo pick
- 12 Sept · 3:00Perez Zeledon0-2San CarlosNo pick
About Primera División
Primera División is the top flight of Costa Rica football with 10 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.52 goals per game over 44 matches: both teams scored in 48%, 41% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 52% with 16% drawn. Deportivo Saprissa lead the table on 21 points from 9 games.
How the model handles Primera División
Every Primera División fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 27 Primera División tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 71.5% on average and landing 63.0%. Its best-calibrated Primera División market so far is over 2.5 (60.8% claimed against 57.1% hit over 7 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Primera División predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Primera División table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Primera División market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Primera División tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 60.8% claimed against 57.1% hit over 7 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Primera División fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Primera División by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.